The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 6 – TX/OK: The region today will be climbing out of the coldest conditions of the season. Overnight low temperatures have toyed with temperatures below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. To the south lows in San Antonio were well into the lower 20s with teens on the Edwards Plateau. Most areas today will struggle to get above freezing and only to the far south will they approach the 40s. Winds will begin from the north today but overnight the direction will begin to shift to a flow from the south, eventually bringing warmer conditions for tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will remain dangerously cold with only the furthest south communities in the low 20s, the remainder of the region will be in the teens. Tomorrow sunny conditions and southerly winds will begin the warm-up from the deep freeze. Skies will be sunny tomorrow and across Texas and north to Oklahoma the temperatures will build into the mid to upper 40’s. Winds will be from the south at moving between 10 and 20 mph northward. In the surrounding communities a chance of precipitation will start to build tomorrow night with both Austin and San Antonio having a 20% chance of rain. The overnight temperatures will stay mostly above the freezing mark, except for the northern area north of Texas in southern and central Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move initially southward, bringing the last of the frigid air over the region. This afternoon and tonight winds will turn coming from the south to begin to ameliorate the cold with warmer conditions across the region tomorrow. The air over the region is cold and dense thus the winds that move northward will override many areas leaving pools of very cold air throughout the day tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Winds tomorrow and tomorrow night will work to push the remaining cold conditions further northward. It is not expected that conditions today and tomorrow will be conducive for pollen release. If any pollen is shed it would be tomorrow as conditions strive to get into the upper40’s. Then tomorrow night in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau the southerly winds will bring moisture northward with a 20% chance of showers overnight in Austin westward to San Antonio.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Very Poor conditions for pollen release today in the Texas populations as the frigid weather keeps temperatures well below the level that is good for pollen release. Today temperatures will struggle to get into the 40s with most areas staying in the 30s. Winds will switch this afternoon and this evening starting a warm up with southerly breezes bringing milder conditions. Tomorrow, temperatures will begin to build but still remain at levels that are not particularly conducive for pollen release. Conditions for entrainment and travel will be poor both days with heavy dense cold air moving at ground level.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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