The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 8 – TX/OK: Across the region, Oklahoma through Texas, southerly winds that build in after the very cold conditions earlier in the week will bring moisture to the area. In Oklahoma there will be a chance of drizzle this afternoon with high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight there is the possibility of freezing drizzle or light snow in Oklahoma. To the south in Texas, moisture with fog and drizzle will occur in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area southward along the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. There will be fog in the morning and a 20% to 40% chance of drizzle and rain throughout the day extending to San Antonio. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across Texas with the westernmost areas getting close to 60 degrees. Skies across the region will be cloudy, except in the far western communities of the Edwards Plateau where skies will partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Tonight the chance of rain will continue in the same communities spreading northward into Oklahoma. Again, the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy with temperatures dropping into the mid to low 30s. The eastern Plateau along with the edge communities northward to north Texas temperatures will be in the low 50s to the 40s. Winds across Texas will be mostly from the south, with the western Plateau catching some northwest breezes. Across the area winds will be light to moderate. Tomorrow cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will remain. Temperatures will warm across Texas with most areas reaching the 60s. The chance of rain in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will remain but lessen a bit. Winds will be more from the east and southeast in central and southern Texas. North Texas will see winds from the northeast at light levels and in Oklahoma winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions will remain and across the region there will be an increase in rain activity. Temperatures will be in the 50s and winds will be from the southeast at light to moderate conditions. To the north in Oklahoma, rain is expected with temperatures in the upper 30s to the north and low 40s along the border with Texas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move northward on a steady southerly flow over the two days. Tomorrow winds will pick up a southeasterly component and slacken becoming lighter. Very cold air over the Edwards Plateau has dissipated and warmer temperatures are expected with readings in the 40s and 50s today rising to the 60s tomorrow. The edge communities with the southerly breezes heighten the chance of precipitation today, tonight, tomorrow and then rain is expected tomorrow night. On the Plateau temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s today and 60s tomorrow. The sites across Texas have been recording pollen over the past week or so. It is expected that pollen will be in the atmosphere today as well. The winds appear to be buoyant with the warming that will occur therefore it is expected that pollen will be entrained and will travel northward on the southerly winds. Areas directly north of the Edwards Plateau including the Dallas/Ft. Worth region can expect to be exposed to pollen. The pollen should extend into central Oklahoma then moving northeast towards Tulsa and St. Louis. Levels could be moderate to high, although the winds are not particularly strong and thus travel will moderate the amount that stays entrained. Tomorrow conditions will be similar during the morning, however the winds will shift, coming from the southeast thus producing a slightly different path. In the afternoon, the chance of precipitation will begin to build across Texas which may dampen not only release but wash entrained pollen out of the atmosphere

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and High (AM)-Moderate (PM) Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate to good conditions for pollen release today in the Texas populations as warming conditions will occur across the area. Winds will be light to moderate but the atmosphere appears to be very buoyant. Those conditions are good for entrainment and transport. Winds will be light to moderate, therefore the overall distance traveled will be northward through central Oklahoma then easterly towards Tulsa and eventually western Missouri. Tomorrow increasing amounts of moisture in the atmosphere will dampen the amount of pollen released as well as the conditions leading to entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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