The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 9 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will see moisture flowing north on southerly and easterly winds. Temperatures will continue to warm, with most of Texas being in the 60s. Northern Texas will reach into the 50s and Oklahoma will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. This morning a chance freezing fog will occur across Oklahoma. Highs are expected to just reach into the low 40s and winds will be light and variable. To the south, fog will also be common this morning across the region. In the communities along the edge of the Edwards Plateau there will be an increasing chance of rain and showers. This will extend from the southern and western Plateau into San Antonio to Austin and northward towards Dallas. These areas will see a 20% to 30% chance of showers during the day. Along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau winds will be light from the south and southeast. To the north winds will be more from the east to southeast. Tonight cloudy conditions will remain, with an overall increase in the chance of rain across the region. Oklahoma will have a 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms. To the south the percentage decreases to 40% or 50% in most areas. Overnight temperatures will be warm with most areas in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds will continue to come from the southeast and south at moderate conditions. Tomorrow the chance of rain builds across the region. The western region of the Edwards Plateau will be the first area to begin to clear as the moisture moves out. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 60s at most locations, San Antonio will toy with the 70 degree mark. Winds will become steadily from the south and southwest at moderate levels. Tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with lingering showers in the edge communities early. Temperatures will return to the 30s in all of the areas except the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where they will be a bit warmer. Winds will be milder and will be changing becoming a dominant northwesterly flow.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move initially to the northwest on southeasterly winds and then are turned to the north on south to southwesterly winds tonight and into tomorrow. Temperatures today will be cold with the Arbuckle Mountain region struggling into the low to mid-40s for a high. Winds will be light and variable and moisture will be building across the area. Tonight, there will be an 80% chance of rain with thunderstorms and the overall temperatures will remain relatively stable. Lows are expected to be in the 40s, similar to the daytime highs. Tomorrow the rain will continue with high temperatures warming into the mid-50s in central Oklahoma and mid-60s along the border area with Texas. Winds will be south at moderate conditions. Tomorrow night the moisture begins to leave the region and partly cloudy conditions will remain. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 30s and winds will start as light and variable but increasingly be influenced by a northwesterly flow towards morning.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be restricted with high temperatures expected to barely get into the 40 degree range. During the afternoon, rain will begin to develop with an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms overnight. Temperatures will stay almost steady with low temperatures expected to be at 40 degrees. Tomorrow rain and thunderstorms will continue throughout the day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s with southerly winds at moderate conditions. Tomorrow night, the rain finally tapers off and partly cloudy skies remain. Low temperatures will drop into the low 30s and winds will be light. With the low temperatures today and then the chance of rain showers tonight and tomorrow the forecast has listed a low threat of pollination occurring and especially any becoming entrained and coming off of the Arbuckle Mountain populations for transport. If there is any threat it would be tomorrow morning but it would require dryer conditions than expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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