The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 9 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will see moisture flowing north on southerly and easterly winds. Temperatures will continue to warm, with most of Texas being in the 60s. Northern Texas will reach into the 50s and Oklahoma will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. This morning a chance freezing fog will occur across Oklahoma. Highs are expected to just reach into the low 40s and winds will be light and variable. To the south, fog will also be common this morning across the region. In the communities along the edge of the Edwards Plateau there will be an increasing chance of rain and showers. This will extend from the southern and western Plateau into San Antonio to Austin and northward towards Dallas. These areas will see a 20% to 30% chance of showers during the day. Along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau winds will be light from the south and southeast. To the north winds will be more from the east to southeast. Tonight cloudy conditions will remain, with an overall increase in the chance of rain across the region. Oklahoma will have a 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms. To the south the percentage decreases to 40% or 50% in most areas. Overnight temperatures will be warm with most areas in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds will continue to come from the southeast and south at moderate conditions. Tomorrow the chance of rain builds across the region. The western region of the Edwards Plateau will be the first area to begin to clear as the moisture moves out. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 60s at most locations, San Antonio will toy with the 70 degree mark. Winds will become steadily from the south and southwest at moderate levels. Tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with lingering showers in the edge communities early. Temperatures will return to the 30s in all of the areas except the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where they will be a bit warmer. Winds will be milder and will be changing becoming a dominant northwesterly flow.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move north to the northwest direction initially then head due north and northeast on southerly winds. Temperatures today will be in the low 60s across the region but with increasing amounts of moisture and most areas have a chance of showers. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will be light. Tonight the chance of rain will increase especially in the surrounding communities north towards north Texas and into Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be very warm with most areas remaining in the 50s. Winds will build coming from the south and southeast. Tomorrow the chance of rain increases with many areas have a risk of showers as well as thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm from today with most areas in the upper 60s to low 70s in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the south to southwest, on the Plateau, at moderate to strong conditions. Tomorrow night the rain begins to clear with the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau being the only areas remaining with a chance of rain. Overnight lows tomorrow night will return back to seasonally normal conditions. The Plateau will drop into the 30s and the surrounding communities will drop to the upper 40s and low 50s. The weather today and tomorrow presents difficulty for the forecast. If and when there is rain in an area it tends to wash pollen out of the atmosphere. However in between with warm temperatures and the potential of gusty winds from thunderstorms pollen can be released, entrained and travel outwards from the populations. It is expected that pollen will be in the atmosphere but that where rain occurs the concentrations will be less. Over longer distances, there will be a greater chance of encountering high humidity levels and thus long distance transport will not be favored. By tomorrow night the rain should be tapering off and conditions will begin to improve in terms of weather as well as the concentration of pollen in the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will depend upon the likelihood of rain showers in any given area. The Texas populations will be under warming conditions and all indications are that when conditions are good there is plenty of pollen to be released. In addition the air trajectories appear to be buoyant which is good for entrainment and travel. However, if rain develops over large areas that will tend to inhibit pollen release as well as wash any pollen out of the atmosphere. In addition, the winds will be light today thus entrained pollen will not necessarily travel great distance. Overnight winds will pick up along with the overall chance of showers and rain developing into tomorrow. We have a high threat today because of warm condition and the moisture is only beginning to develop. Then tomorrow there are moderate conditions because of the greater chance of precipitation across the region. Any pollen that get entrained and remains in the atmosphere will travel northward across Oklahoma towards the western side of the Great Lakes


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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