The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 13 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will once again be under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions, although not as warm as yesterday. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will start today as partly cloudy but those areas should clear by noon. Temperatures today will reach into the low 60s in the border area of north Texas, southwards across the Edwards Plateau and in most of the surrounding communities. The area around San Antonio may pop above the 70 degree mark for their high temperature. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour moving the atmosphere to the south-southeast. Tonight clear skies will dominate with most areas staying in the upper to mid-30s. Areas of the Plateau will drop into the mid- to upper-20’s. Winds will be light with the eastern Plateau and the surrounding communities mostly seeing light winds from the northwest and west, whereas on the western portions of the Plateau winds will be from the southwest. Tomorrow sunny skies will once again dominate across the region. Temperatures will be at about the same level as Monday but the winds will start to build in the morning. The winds will be predominantly from the northwest in the morning but will switch to a more dominant west to east direction during the day. Overnight skies will remain clear and low temperatures will cool. Most areas on the Edwards Plateau and north into Oklahoma will see low temperatures in the 20s. In the surrounding communities and north towards Dallas/Ft. Worth temperatures will be in the 30s but above freezing. Winds will be light to moderate and a northerly flow will dominate across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move slowly to the south-southeast today on light to moderate winds from the north-northwest. Overnight the winds will turn to a westerly flow then resume the northwesterly flow in the morning. The trajectories will push south to southeastward moving towards the northeastern portion of Texas. The air will be dense and move at ground level as it travels. Conditions overall will be good today for pollen release with temperatures climbing to the 60s and light to moderate winds. However the dense air will have the entrained pollen moving close to the ground where impaction on other surfaces is thought to be a major factor in removing pollen from the atmosphere. Pollen that does travel some distance will impact allergy sufferers in northeastern Texas just south of the Texas/Oklahoma border.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today are very good with warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However the air is dense and so entrainment and travel will be a bit subdued at good levels. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The Arbuckle Mountain populations will be under warm conditions the entire forecast period and all indications are that plenty of pollen is ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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