The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 14 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will once again be under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions with the Plateau in the 60s and the surrounding communities in the 70s. To the north in Oklahoma temperatures will be in the 50s. Winds in Oklahoma will start the day from the northwest at moderate conditions. Later in the day those winds will build to stronger levels coming from the north. Across Texas, the winds will begin from the west this morning light to moderate levels, then build to moderate conditions as the come from a more northwesterly direction. Tonight the region will be mostly clear north and clear to the south. Temperatures in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateu will fall into the upper 20s whereas in the surrounding communities lows will stay above freezing but be in the upper 30s. Winds will remain from the north and northwest across the region at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow mostly sunny and sunny skies will return. Overall temperatures will be the same in Oklahoma, but across Texas there will be a 5 to 10 degree cooling. For example, Dallas will reach into the upper 50s rather than todays mid 60s. The same trend will occur across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. In Oklahoma winds will be light from the west, and across Texas the surrounding communities will see light to moderate winds from the northwest. On the Plateau a southwesterly wind will build during the day and this will eventually move across the region tomorrow night at light levels. Tomorrow night clear and mostly clear skies will remain with temperatures warming and overnight lows region wide staying in the 30s but above freezing.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle mountains move southward today on moderate winds initially from the north-northwest but turning from the north early. The trajectories will push southward moving across central and heading towards southern portions of Texas. The air will be dense and move at ground level as it travels . Conditions overall will be good today and tomorrow for pollen release with temperatures climbing to the upper 50s with light to moderate winds. Tomorrow the trajectories will change as the winds will be from the west rather than today’s northerly flow. However the dense air will have the entrained pollen moving close to the ground where impaction on other surfaces is thought to be a major factor in removing pollen from the atmosphere. Pollen that does travel some distance will impact allergy sufferers in northern Texas southward towards the Edwards Plateau.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain very good with warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However the air is dense and so entrainment and travel will be a bit subdued. Trees were releasing large amounts of pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The Arbuckle Mountain populations will be under warm conditions the entire forecast period and all indications are that plenty of pollen should remain ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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