The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
High |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 14 January 2014
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 14 – TX/OK:
The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will once again be under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions
with the Plateau in the 60s and the surrounding communities in the 70s. To the north in Oklahoma temperatures
will be in the 50s. Winds in Oklahoma will start the day from the northwest at moderate conditions. Later in
the day those winds will build to stronger levels coming from the north. Across Texas, the winds will begin from
the west this morning light to moderate levels, then build to moderate conditions as the come from a more northwesterly
direction. Tonight the region will be mostly clear north and clear to the south. Temperatures in Oklahoma and
across the Edwards Plateau will fall into the upper 20s whereas in the surrounding communities lows will stay above
freezing but be in the upper 30s. Winds will remain from the north and northwest across the region at light to
moderate levels. Tomorrow mostly sunny and sunny skies will return. Overall temperatures will be the same in
Oklahoma, but across Texas there will be a 5 to 10 degree cooling. For example, Dallas will reach into the upper
50s rather than today's mid 60s. The same trend will occur across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities.
In Oklahoma winds will be light from the west, and across Texas the surrounding communities will see light to
moderate winds from the northwest. On the Plateau a southwesterly wind will build during the day and this will
eventually move across the region tomorrow night at light levels. Tomorrow night clear and mostly clear skies
will remain with temperatures warming and overnight lows region wide staying in the 30s but above freezing.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move south-southeast today on light to moderate winds
from the north-northwest. The trajectories will push southward moving towards the southern portion of the state
as well as out over the Gulf of Mexico. The air will be dense and move at ground level as it travels to begin
with but becomes more buoyant as it moves over southernmost Texas. Conditions overall will be good today for pollen
release with temperatures climbing to the 60s and low 70s with light to moderate winds. However the dense air
will have the entrained pollen moving close to the ground where impaction on other surfaces is thought to be a
major factor in removing pollen from the atmosphere. Pollen that does travel some distance will impact allergy
sufferers in southernmost Texas such as in Laredo to Corpus Christi and on to Matamoros.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for
pollen release today remain very good with warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However the air is dense
and so entrainment and travel will be a bit subdued. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau
and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The Texas populations will be under
warm conditions the entire forecast period and all indications are that plenty of pollen remain ready to be released
and entrained into the atmosphere.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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