The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 15 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, will once again be under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions with the high temperatures in the 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Dallas/Ft. Worth and northward will be in the mid to upper 50s although cooler temperatures will occur in Oklahoma. Over the forecast period winds will be swirling over the region. Today the northern areas will see light winds from the west. Across the Edwards Plateau a western air flow will also occur at light wind levels except to the far west where the flow will be a bit stronger. In the communities surrounding the Plateau the flow will be from the northwest. Tonight clear skies will occur with the region dropping into the 30s, but staying above freezing. Winds will remain light but be out of the southwest. Tomorrow will begin with mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures will warm a bit from today with the entire region reaching the 60s. The communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will remain with a southwesterly flow at light to moderate levels. To the north winds will be moderate from the northwest and across the Edwards Plateau most areas will be from the west, but the far western communities will see a shift in the winds coming from the north that will overtake the region tomorrow night. Tomorrow night northerly winds will bring colder conditions with Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau falling into the 20s and the surrounding communities in the mid to low 30s

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move initially to the southeast on west and northwest winds today and tonight. The trajectories then show it moving off to the north and east towards northern Arkansas. Wind conditions today will be light. Tonight winds will be light and variable keeping the flow at light levels and in the general region of the tree population. Then tomorrow these northern areas will return to a northwest flow at light to moderate levels during the day then calming tomorrow night. With all of this air movement the atmosphere will continue to be dense, with movement at and/or near ground level. Conditions overall will be good today for pollen release with temperatures climbing to the mid 50s with light to moderate winds. However the dense air will have the entrained pollen moving close to the ground where impaction on other surfaces is thought to be a major factor in removing pollen from the atmosphere. Tomorrow the temperatures will warm slightly and winds will be light to moderate from the northwest moving any entrained pollen towards the southeast.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain good with warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However the air is dense and so entrainment and travel will be a bit subdued. Also the morning temperatures in the Arbuckle Mountains were low this morning, limiting pollen release to the afternoon warm up. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The Arbuckle Mountain population will be under warm conditions the entire forecast period and all indications are that plenty of pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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