The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 16 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, continues under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions. The high temperatures today will once again be in the 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. San Antonio is expected to reach into the low 70s. In the far north around Oklahoma City will temperatures only reach into the 50s. Over the forecast period winds will be swirling over the region this morning but a predominant northerly flow will take over before noon in most areas. This switch will begin to the north with Oklahoma southwards to north Texas showing moderate winds from the northwest. In the early afternoon the northerly winds will have arrived and the trajectories begin to move southwards in mass.. Tonight clear skies will occur with the region dropping into the mid to upper 20s across the north and on the Edwards Plateau. The communities surrounding the Plateau will stay above freezing. Winds will remain light out of the north. Tomorrow will begin with mostly sunny to sunny skies. The northern air moving across the region will bring temperatures down with highs in most areas reaching into the upper 50s instead of the upper 60s as has been the recent pattern. Winds will remain from the north across the region except on the western Plateau where a southerly wind will begin to move into the region. Tomorrow night the southerly winds move across the region with the development of partly to mostly cloudy skies from the Dallas/Ft. Worth area northwards. The winds will be very light. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s and the Edwards Plateau region will hover around the freezing mark.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains will begin the day with a moderate flow from the northwest. Temperatures will reach into the lower 60’s and therefore conditions for pollen release and entrainment will be good. Overnight mostly clear skies will remain and temperatures will drop into the upper 20s overnight. Winds will remain light to moderate from the northwest. The cooler air will result in the air being dense and the trajectories move at or near ground level. The trajectories show the air moving southward into northern Texas east of the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region. Tomorrow temperatures will be cooler with communities in the lower 50s. Winds will be light and late in the day winds will begin to switch with a southerly flow taking over tomorrow evening.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain very good with warm temperatures and moderate winds. However the air is dense and so entrainment and travel will be subdued. The trajectories will be moving to the south over northeastern Texas during the day, overnight and into tomorrow. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The threat tomorrow will be a bit subdued because of the cooler temperatures. The Southern Oklahoma populations will be under warm conditions today and indications are that pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region. Tomorrow cooler conditions may reduce the overall pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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