The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

Severe

San Antonio

Severe

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 16 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, continues under mostly sunny skies with seasonably warm conditions. The high temperatures today will once again be in the 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. San Antonio is expected to reach into the low 70s. In the far north around Oklahoma City will temperatures only reach into the 50s. Over the forecast period winds will be swirling over the region this morning but a predominant northerly flow will take over before noon in most areas. This switch will begin to the north with Oklahoma southwards to north Texas showing moderate winds from the northwest. In the early afternoon the northerly winds will have arrived and the trajectories begin to move southwards in mass.. Tonight clear skies will occur with the region dropping into the mid to upper 20s across the north and on the Edwards Plateau. The communities surrounding the Plateau will stay above freezing. Winds will remain light out of the north. Tomorrow will begin with mostly sunny to sunny skies. The northern air moving across the region will bring temperatures down with highs in most areas reaching into the upper 50s instead of the upper 60s as has been the recent pattern. Winds will remain from the north across the region except on the western Plateau where a southerly wind will begin to move into the region. Tomorrow night the southerly winds move across the region with the development of partly to mostly cloudy skies from the Dallas/Ft. Worth area northwards. The winds will be very light. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s and the Edwards Plateau region will hover around the freezing mark.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas will begin the day somewhat mixed with areas still affected by the southwest wind. During the morning the dominant northwesterly wind will begin to mover over the region. Temperatures today will be in the 60s across the region and another day of good conditions for pollination will follow. As the northerly flow takes over most of the pollen that becomes entrained in the atmosphere will move southward. Winds will be light to lightly moderate thus the travel distances will not be significant. The atmosphere over the region will be dense under the northerly flow cooler air. However, once in southern areas of Texas the atmosphere become much more buoyant. Tomorrow temperatures will be cooler with most areas in the 50s. Winds will be light and late in the day winds will begin to switch with a southerly flow taking over tomorrow afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain very good with warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However the air is dense and so entrainment and travel will be subdued. The trajectories will be moving to the south of the population during the day, overnight and into tomorrow. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions will be about the same in terms of the temperatures. The threat tomorrow will be a bit subdued because of the cooler temperatures. The Texas populations will be under warm conditions the entire forecast period and all indications are that plenty of pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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