The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Friday, January 17 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, continues under mostly sunny skies. Today high temperatures will be cooler than the last couple of days with high temperatures in the 50s in southern Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will return to the 60’s. Tomorrow the entire region will be in the 60s. Winds today will mostly be from the north and hence the cooling. Winds will be from the northwest at light conditions across Oklahoma stretching into the north Texas region. On the Edwards Plateau the winds will be from the north and northeast. The southwestern areas of the Plateau will be light from the southeast. Overnight winds will be very light and an increasing southerly flow will take over. Temperatures tonight will be in the 30s region wide. However, most areas will remain above freezing. Tomorrow sunny and partly sunny skies remain with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the region. Winds will become light to moderate with an overall coming from the southwest. Across Oklahoma the flow will be more of a westerly flow. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies remain. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but most areas will stay above freezing. Across Texas the southwest to westerly flow will remain. In Oklahoma colder air will be pushing southwards again from the northwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Southern Oklahoma will begin the day with light to moderate winds from the northwest bringing colder air into the region. The winds will die overnight resulting in light and variable conditions in north Texas and the border region with Oklahoma. The atmosphere will be cooler today, the region can expect to struggle into the low 50s, and relatively dense air. Minor amounts of air movement is expected resulting in little entrainment and travel of entrained pollen. Tomorrow, however a moderate westerly flow takes over and temperatures will rise back into the 60’s across the region. Winds moderate blowing from the west and the warming the atmosphere should be more buoyant. Tomorrow night the westerly winds will shift coming more from the northwest once again. Temperatures tomorrow will climb back into the 60s and more the better atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel will pose exposure risks to the east and northeast of the Arbuckle Mountains.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain marginal with colder conditions. Temperatures will be cool with most areas only in the 50s. Winds will be light especially tonight and the air should be dense. The trajectories will be moving along short pathways with the light winds today and tonight, therefore the greatest threat will occur to those areas within the populations and the adjoining regions. Tomorrow conditions improve and a light to moderate air flow over the southern Oklahoma region from the west with more buoyant air for travel and entrainment to the east. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions are expected to be subdued because of the lower temperatures. The threat tomorrow will ramp up with warmer conditions and stronger winds. All indications are that plenty of pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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