The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 17 – TX/OK: The region today, Oklahoma through Texas, continues under mostly sunny skies. Today high temperatures will be cooler than the last couple of days with high temperatures in the 50s in southern Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will return to the 60’s. Tomorrow the entire region will be in the 60s. Winds today will mostly be from the north and hence the cooling. Winds will be from the northwest at light conditions across Oklahoma stretching into the north Texas region. On the Edwards Plateau the winds will be from the north and northeast. The southwestern areas of the Plateau will be light from the southeast. Overnight winds will be very light and an increasing southerly flow will take over. Temperatures tonight will be in the 30s region wide. However, most areas will remain above freezing. Tomorrow sunny and partly sunny skies remain with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the region. Winds will become light to moderate with an overall coming from the southwest. Across Oklahoma the flow will be more of a westerly flow. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies remain. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but most areas will stay above freezing. Across Texas the southwest to westerly flow will remain. In Oklahoma colder air will be pushing southwards again from the northwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas will begin the day somewhat mixed with light winds from the north and northwest. These light wind conditions will continue overnight. The atmosphere will be cooler today and relatively dense with minor amounts of movement thus entrainment and travel of entrained pollen should be reduced. Tomorrow, however a moderate southwesterly flow takes over and temperatures will rise back into the 60’s across the region. Winds will be light to moderate and with the warming the atmosphere should be more buoyant. Tomorrow night the southwesterly winds will shift coming more from the west. Eventually late tomorrow night into Sunday morning another push of air from the northwest begins to move south over the region. Temperatures today will just get into the 60s in the surrounding communities and be in the mid to upper 50s across the rest of the area. The atmosphere over the region will be dense with the cooler temperatures, and then very light winds tonight. Warming tomorrow should get pollen entrained and the southwesterly flow will move it towards the east.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain good but less so than the past week. Temperatures will be cooling with most areas only in the 50s. Winds will be light especially tonight and the air should be dense. The trajectories will be moving along short pathways with the light winds today and tonight, therefore the greatest threat will occur to those areas within the populations and the adjoining regions. Tomorrow conditions improve and a light to moderate air flow over the region from the southwest will bring more buoyant air for travel and entrainment to the east. Trees were releasing pollen yesterday on the Edwards Plateau and today’s conditions are expected to be subdued because of the lower temperatures. The threat tomorrow will ramp up with warmer conditions and stronger winds. All indications are that plenty of pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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