The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, January 20 – TX/OK: The region remains under sunny skies today and tomorrow. Southern Oklahoma will be sunny today with high temperatures reaching the mid-60s, clear tonight and sunny again tomorrow. This morning the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will start partly cloudy with a chance of patchy fog in places. The partly cloudy skies will extend westward out towards Fredericksburg to Junction. The cloudy conditions will burn off resulting in mostly sunny skies. High temperatures across Texas will be in the 70’s with the southern most areas climbing into the upper 70s. Winds will begin the day at light levels from the southwest. During the day they will build towards moderate conditions. The winds will shift towards the west in the afternoon and starting across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau, winds will eventually come out of the northwest. Overnight winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Low temperatures to the north in Oklahoma will be in the mid-20s. To the south, lows will remain in the mid-30s with low 40s in the surrounding communities. The cold air moving south tonight will lower temperatures tomorrow. The Edwards Plateau will go from 70s, to most areas only getting into the 50s on Tuesday. San Antonio, which should reach the upper 70s today, will struggle to get to 60. Skies will be sunny with light to moderate winds moving towards the south. The western most area of the Edwards Plateau will show a wind shift returning back to a southwest flow. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy conditions will build in and temperatures will be in the low 20s to the north in Oklahoma and across the Plateau. The surrounding communities will be in the low 30s. Winds will be very light and mixed as an overall southwesterly flow takes over from the push of cold northerly air across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with moderate winds from the west. However, the winds will shift under moderate conditions to the south early as a northerly flow takes over. High temperatures today will be warm in the mid-60s, with the Texas region to the south getting into the 70s. The northerly flow will cool the region overnight with lows expected in the mid to low 20s. By tonight the change in winds conditions will be region wide moving the atmosphere towards the south. With the turn to the south, the colder air will be mixing with a warmer atmosphere and thus the atmosphere will become buoyant and better for entrainment and travel tomorrow. Tomorrow the northerly winds will continue to move southward. With the cold air, temperatures will be up to 20 degrees lower than today. Highs in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-40s. Tomorrow night lows will fall into the low 20s. Winds will begin to become mixed as the southerly flow begins to take over Tuesday night.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain excellent with temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will cool significantly as cold air from the north moves south overnight. Winds will be moderate today and the air will become more buoyant with the warming. The colder northerly flow will move across the region early with much colder conditions. Tomorrow conditions will cool significantly with high temperatures some 20 degrees below today’s conditions. All indications are that plenty of pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region. It will be interesting with the push of cold air if levels begin to level out or even decline.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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