The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 21 – TX/OK: The region remains under sunny skies today and tomorrow. Southern Oklahoma will be sunny today with high temperatures only reaching the mid-40s, it will be clear tonight and sunny again tomorrow. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the upper 50s. This morning the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 50s. Areas on the Plateau will be in the mid to upper 50s. Cooler conditions will occur to the north with the Dallas/Ft. Worth area just reaching 50 degrees, winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Tonight the low temperatures will drop into the mid-20s across the Edwards Plateau and north towards Oklahoma. In the areas surrounding the Plateau the lows will be at or near 30 degrees. The entire region is expected to dip below freezing. Winds in the communities surrounding the Plateau and the corridor north towards the Dallas/Ft. Worth area will continue to see winds from the north. The Plateau and northward into Oklahoma will have a southwesterly flow that will start to warm the area tomorrow. Wednesday will see sunny and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will bounce back into the mid to upper 60s across Texas. It will climb into the mid to upper 50s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be out of the southwest at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night the southwesterly flow will bring greater moisture to the area and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s overnight, except in Oklahoma where cold northeasterly breezes will keep temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Winds will be from the east and southeast across central Texas and very gusty in places. On the plateau gusts of 20 to 25 miles per hour are expected.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains in southern Oklahoma will begin the day under sunny skies with moderate winds from the north bringing cold conditions. Temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than conditions over the past few days. Winds will be moderate to moderate falling off to light levels during the day. The winds will be from the north during the day switching coming from the southwest tonight. The cold conditions should result in very little pollen being dispersed. Tonight, the winds will turn and move northeastward on the south to north flow. Tonight low temperatures will occur across southern Oklahoma and Texas with temperatures below freezing. Overnight the winds will switch with a southwesterly flow building back in. The low temperatures mean that any entrained pollen will tend to move slowly at low elevations and will be susceptible to impaction and other processes bringing the pollen out of the atmosphere. Tomorrow temperatures begin to warm again under sunny skies.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remain are moderate with temperatures expected to only get into the mid-40s across southern Oklahoma. Temperatures tomorrow will begin to warm as cold air will be displaced by warmer air from the southwest. Winds will be moderate today and the air will be cold and dense at the ground surface. The trajectories appear to move small distances at the surface because of the cold dense air. At upper levels the trajectories will be stronger and move greater distances. The northerly flow will keep surface pollen mostly over the population. If it gets entrained it will move some distance with stronger winds aloft and will move off to a northeasterly direction. However, it does not appear that today will be a significant exporter of pollen from the region and the populations in southern Oklahoma will struggle to get warm enough for pollen cones to open. The region has also had a significant run of very good days of pollination and the overall counts across the region have been stabilizing and in some places decreasing. This may only be a lull while more pollen matures and gets ready to be released. Indications are that pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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