The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 22 – TX/OK: After a long run of sunny and warm conditions, the region will see a major change beginning today and into tomorrow. Cold air from the northeast and the possibility of rain and freezing precipitation will occur over the forecast period. Southern Oklahoma will start sunny today with high temperatures reaching the mid-50s. It will be clear mostly clear but very cold with northeast winds. Lows tonight will be in the teens in central Oklahoma and low 20s in the border region with Texas. To the south across Texas today will return to seasonal temperatures in the 60s. Skies will start the day as sunny and mostly sunny across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the southwest to begin the day but during the afternoon and early evening cold conditions from the northeast will move across the area. Tonight temperatures will fall into the-mid 30s on the Edwards Plateau, and 40s in the surrounding communities. To the north, along the I-35 corridor cold conditions will be heading south. This evening the low in Dallas/Ft. Worth will be in the upper 20s. Overnight skies will go from partly cloudy this evening to mostly cloudy overnight. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will occur across Oklahoma. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s for the high in central Oklahoma and along the border it will not get above the low 30s. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 20 miles per hour. Across Texas temperatures will stay in the 30s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low to mid 40s in the communities surrounding the plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong from the northeast. There is a 30% chance of precipitation in the surrounding communities and on the Plateau itself, a 20% chance of rain, maybe sleet and other forms of frozen precipitation, will occur. Skies will be cloudy during the day and into the evening. Tomorrow night the chance of precipitation will remain but temperatures will drop into the teens to low 20s resulting in frozen forms of precipitation overnight. Winds will remain from the north and northeast at moderate to strong levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will begin the day under sunny and mostly sunny skies with light to moderate winds from the south and southwest. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-60s across the Edwards Plateau and upper 60s in the surrounding communities from San Antonio north along the I-35 corridor. Conditions will cool towards the north with the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area expected to be in the upper 50s. Winds will be light from the south and southwest. Across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon, partly cloudy conditions will build in as the leading edge of cold air from the northeast moves into the state. The trajectories will be pushed upwards and appear to swirl around northern Texas as this occurs. The change will occur late afternoon and into the evening with cloudy skies building in and temperatures dropping. Winds will establish themselves from the northeast across the region by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow skies will be cloudy with a chance of precipitation across Texas. Temperatures will struggle to get into the 40s at the warmest locations and winds will be strong from the northeast. There is a 20% to 30% chance of light rain or even freezing rain in the coldest areas. Tomorrow night will be very cold with lows in the teens and low twenties. The chance of rain, freezing rain and snow will occur across the Edwards Plateau area including the surrounding communities.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today remains high with moderately warm temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the Texas region. Winds today will be from the southwest and move trajectories to the northeast until the push of cold northeast air is encountered. The air will lift the atmosphere as it moves in at ground level causing the trajectories to gain elevation. Most of the interaction will occur in northern Texas region from the Pan Handle eastward from the border region south to the Dallas/Ft. Worth region. Winds will be light to moderate today. The changes coming with colder air from the east will begin this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s in Dallas and be in the mid-30s across the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow highs will not be much higher than tonight’s lows. Conditions will be good for pollen release, entrainment and travel. However with the incursion of cold air tonight entrained pollen should remain essentially within the boundaries of Texas. As colder conditions invade tonight the chance of pollination tomorrow looks to be significantly reduced. The cold conditions should bring a pretty pollen free atmosphere across the region. However, indications are that pollen remains ready to be released and entrained into the atmosphere once conditions warm again. High levels continue to be recorded at reporting stations across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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