The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 23 – TX/OK: After a long run of sunny and warm conditions, the region will see a major change today and tomorrow with cold air dropping southward. Cold air from the northeast and the possibility of rain and freezing precipitation will occur over the forecast period. Southern Oklahoma will start the day partly cloudy with high temperatures only reaching the mid-20s in Oklahoma City and the low 30s to the south near the Texas border. Across Texas it will be cloudy with the high temperatures on the Edwards Plateau staying in the 30s. the surrounding communities will warm slightly, but San Antonio will struggle to get to 50 degrees. Winds will be from the northeast and moderate to strong. Most areas have a chance of seeing gusts in the 25 to 30 miles per hour range. There will also be a 20% to 30% chance of rain and light rain initially then turning to sleet and snow. Overnight partly cloudy skies will occur to the north of the Dallas/Ft Worth metro region into Oklahoma. Across the Edwards Plateau cloudy conditions will persist as well in the surrounding communities. The strong northeasterly winds will continue and temperatures will be very cold. In Oklahoma lows will be just above single digits. Across Texas tonight will be in the lower 20s and teens on the Plateau and in the upper 20s in the surrounding communities. The chance of light rain and sleet will continue through the night into tomorrow. Tomorrow the winds will finally calm and begin to switch to a southwesterly flow across the northern areas and to the west. Highs for the region will barely get into the 40’s in Oklahoma and will be in the 30s across Texas. The chance of light rain and snow will remain at 20% to 30%. The Plateau will remain cloudy but in the surrounding communities mostly cloudy skies will occur and in southern Oklahoma it will be mostly sunny. Tomorrow night mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain and temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s across the region. Winds will be light from the west and southwest. Conditions will begin to warm into the weekend.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the southern Oklahoma will begin the day under cloudy conditions with strong northeasterly winds pushing everything to the south. Temperatures will be in the low 30s. There will be a chance of rain, light rain, sleet and snow to the south across most of the Edwards Plateau, however the moisture does not appear headed to southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate to strong with gusts in many areas reaching 30 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will be in the teens and the dominant northeasterly flow will continue but at light levels. Tomorrow, cold conditions will persist with highs just reaching the 40 degree mark. As the day develops the northerly flow will be replaced by a southwesterly wind that indicate the eventual warm-up. Skies across Oklahoma will become mostly sunny to sunny. Winds will be light. Tomorrow night the skies will be clear and low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be very poor. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to 30s across the Texas and southern Oklahoma today. There is a 20 to 30% chance of rain, light rain and sleet developing across the Texas region to the south, however the moisture does not extend northward into the border region with Oklahoma. Winds will be from the northeast at strong conditions today as the cold air moves out of the northeast across the region. The changes with colder air from the northeast will chill the region and should restrict any pollen release today and well as tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to only rise into the upper 30s and low 40s after very cold conditions overnight. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will begin to turn and by tomorrow evening a southwesterly breeze and warmer conditions will begin to move in. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the teens to the north and twenties across Texas. With the colder conditions today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night along with the chance of precipitation during this period to the south, pollination looks to be significantly reduced. The cold conditions should bring a nearly pollen free atmosphere across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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