The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 23 – TX/OK: After a long run of sunny and warm conditions, the region will see a major change today and tomorrow with cold air dropping southward. Cold air from the northeast and the possibility of rain and freezing precipitation will occur over the forecast period. Southern Oklahoma will start the day partly cloudy with high temperatures only reaching the mid-20s in Oklahoma City and the low 30s to the south near the Texas border. Across Texas it will be cloudy with the high temperatures on the Edwards Plateau staying in the 30s. the surrounding communities will warm slightly, but San Antonio will struggle to get to 50 degrees. Winds will be from the northeast and moderate to strong. Most areas have a chance of seeing gusts in the 25 to 30 miles per hour range. There will also be a 20% to 30% chance of rain and light rain initially then turning to sleet and snow. Overnight partly cloudy skies will occur to the north of the Dallas/Ft Worth metro region into Oklahoma. Across the Edwards Plateau cloudy conditions will persist as well in the surrounding communities. The strong northeasterly winds will continue and temperatures will be very cold. In Oklahoma lows will be just above single digits. Across Texas tonight will be in the lower 20s and teens on the Plateau and in the upper 20s in the surrounding communities. The chance of light rain and sleet will continue through the night into tomorrow. Tomorrow the winds will finally calm and begin to switch to a southwesterly flow across the northern areas and to the west. Highs for the region will barely get into the 40’s in Oklahoma and will be in the 30s across Texas. The chance of light rain and snow will remain at 20% to 30%. The Plateau will remain cloudy but in the surrounding communities mostly cloudy skies will occur and in southern Oklahoma it will be mostly sunny. Tomorrow night mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain and temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s across the region. Winds will be light from the west and southwest. Conditions will begin to warm into the weekend.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau will begin the day under cloudy conditions with strong northeasterly winds pushing everything to the south. Temperatures will be in the low to mid to upper 30s except for the surrounding communities that will struggle into the 40s. San Antonio may just make it across the 50 degree mark. There will be a chance of rain, light rain, sleet and snow across most of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong with gusts in many areas reaching 30 miles per hour. Tonight the chance of precipitation will increase to 50% across the Plateau and in the edge communities in the form of sleet and snow. Temperatures will be in the 20s and the dominant northeasterly flow will continue. Tomorrow, cold conditions will persist with highs in the 30s in most areas. As the day develops the northerly flow will be replaced by westerly and southwesterly winds to begin the warm-up. Winds will be light. Tomorrow night the skies begin to break-up with mostly to partly cloudy conditions but temperatures fall into the mid-20s to upper 20s across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be very poor. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to 30s across the Texas and southern Oklahoma region today. The warmest areas along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau may see conditions in the upper most 40s. There is a 20 to 30% chance of rain, light rain and sleet developing across the region, Winds will be from the northeast at strong conditions with gusts up to 30 miles per hour or more as the cold air moves out of the northeast across the region. The changes with colder air from the northeast will chill the region and should restrict any pollen release today and well as tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to only rise into the upper 30s. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will begin to turn and by tomorrow evening a southwesterly breeze and warmer conditions will begin to move in. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the teens to the north and twenties across Texas. With the colder conditions today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night along with the chance of precipitation during this period, pollination looks to be significantly reduced. The cold conditions should bring a nearly pollen free atmosphere across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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