The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 24 – TX/OK:. Cold air from the northeast and the possibility of rain and freezing precipitation arrived yesterday evening across the region with a wintery mix of precipitation occurring over the Edwards Plateau. Today Texas will be recovering from this blast of winter and begin a warming period that will quickly bring temperatures back into the 60s by the weekend. However, today the region will be under the grips of very cold conditions with a slight chance of continued precipitation as rain or freezing rain in the communities surrounding the edge of the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma the clouds will be leaving and sunny skies will dominate. Overnight conditions were very cold with southern Oklahoma in the teens and most of Texas dropping into the 20s. As the day begins temperatures will be warming but highs across the region will struggle to get into the 40s. The warmer conditions will begin to the southwest with southwesterly breezes moving warmer air across the region starting this afternoon. Southern Oklahoma will start the day sunny and cold but will also see the southwesterly flow build in as conditions begin to improve. Tonight temperatures will again drop below freezing with the Plateau and Oklahoma falling into the 20s and the edge communities and along the I-35 corridor being in the low 30s. The mostly cloudy skies will begin to break-up to partly cloudy conditions and winds will be light from the southwest to west. Tomorrow mostly sunny conditions will dominate the region from Oklahoma through Texas, with partly cloudy skies to the west and southwest. High temperatures will return back into the 60s across the region. Winds will be from the west in the edge communities at light levels whereas more of a northerly flow will occur in the other areas. Winds will be light. It will be a return to conditions of a week ago with warm temperatures and good conditions. Tomorrow night the region will be partly cloudy with lows above freezing but in the 30s to low 40s and light southerly winds.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern central Texas will begin the day under cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions initially with northerly breezes, turning quickly during the day with a dominant southwesterly flow. The very cold conditions overnight, temperatures into teens will begin to warm as the colder northerly air gives way. The trajectories move initially towards the south but then turn towards a northeasterly flow. The winds will be very light thus the overall distance that the air moves will not be great. There is still a potential of precipitation across the region this morning although it appears to be tapering off significantly. With the light winds and the atmosphere starting dense and cold the trajectories will move mostly at ground level. The very low temperatures overnight should impede the release of large amounts of pollen today, but conditions from tomorrow are improving significantly. Today should be a period of recovery for the trees and then tomorrow’s 60 degrees should initiate pollination once again. Tomorrow skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, highs in the 60s, and light winds from the southwest. Tomorrow night lows will remain above freezing dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and will be poor but much better tomorrow. Temperatures will be climbing from the low teens this morning and highs are expected to only get briefly into the low to mid 40s. Over the region conditions will be improving tomorrow with warming into the 60s and light winds from the southwest. The changes that occurred with the colder air from the northeast chilled the region and should restrict any pollen release today. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to return back into the 60s with light winds and much better conditions for release. Winds will be light and thus pollen entrainment and travel is not expected to be significant, but within the areas of the tree populations pollen may be prevalent. We will be watching to see how well the pollen in the atmosphere returns from these cold conditions. Just prior to the incursion of yesterday’s weather system pollen counts had begun to diminish a bit but there still seems to be ample pollen ready to be released.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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