The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, January 25/26 – TX/OK:. The region today will rebound nicely from the cold conditions at the end of the week. Skies across Oklahoma today will be mostly sunny with the high temperature expected to be in the lower 60s along the border region and in the 50s in central Oklahoma. Winds will be from the northwest at light to moderate conditions this afternoon and then shift around to southwest this evening. Across Texas temperatures will also climb into the mid-60s with light to moderate winds from the west and northwest. Skies will be sunny to the north shifting to partly cloudy and mostly cloudy along the I-35 corridor from Dallas to San Antonio. On the Plateau mostly cloudy conditions will begin the day but the skies will break-up during the day to partly cloudy conditions. Winds will be from the northwest and west at light to moderate conditions. Overnight partly cloudy skies will dominate the region. Temperatures will fall to the mid-30s in Oklahoma and across much of the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities most areas will only fall into the lower 40s. Winds will be from the south across the Edwards Plateau. In the remaining areas winds will be from mixed directions and light. Tomorrow, the region will continue to warm with highs expected region wide to be in the 70s. The Plateau will be in the mid-70s and even areas to the north along the border with Oklahoma will reach 70. Winds will be from the south and southwest and light to moderate levels. Skies will be mostly sunny. Tomorrow night conditions will be mostly clear along the border between Oklahoma and Texas as well as across the Edwards Plateau. The skies form Austin north to Dallas will remain partly cloudy. Low temperatures will fall a bit from today with lows in Oklahoma in the 20s but Texas remaining in the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will start at light levels from the southwest, but later move to a more northwesterly flow. The rest of the region will be under an overall north/northwest flow at light to moderate conditions. Colder weather is expected next week.

Trajectory weather: Air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with mostly sunny conditions. Initially winds will be light from the north, but these will turn this afternoon or early evening with winds coming from the south. The zone forecast calls for a northwesterly flow for most of the day, however the modelling indicates that the winds will turn, coming from the southwest much earlier. Highs today will be in the mid-60s across the area and tonight lows will dip into the mid-30s. As the more southerly flow takes over the trajectories will move to the north across Oklahoma towards the north and northeast. The forecast model shows winds from the southern Oklahoma population traveling close to the Tulsa Metro region as it moves northeast this eventing. Across southern Oklahoma pollen entrained over the Edwards Plateau should push north towards southern Oklahoma. Warm temperatures are expected tomorrow with most stations climbing into the 70s. These conditions will be very good for pollination, entrainment and travel over the forecast period. After the last weeks cold conditions and precipitation, the overall skies should have been cleared and thus release today will begin the process of building pollen back into the air across the area.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and Severe Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be excellent. Temperatures will be climbing from the twenties overnight but will reach well into the 60s by this afternoon. Winds will be from the north and northwest early then switch to a more southwesterly flow. Tomorrow conditions will be even better with the highs forecast to be in the upper 60s or 70s from southern Oklahoma across Texas. Winds tomorrow will be moderate therefore entrainment and travel towards the northeast is expected. As pollen from the southern Oklahoma population move to the northeast, it is expected that pollen from Texas will move into southern Oklahoma and may contribute to significant levels across the area. We will be watching to see how well the pollen in the atmosphere returns from the cold conditions and precipitation earlier in the week. Just prior to the incursion of Thursday’s and Friday’s weather system pollen counts had begun to diminish a bit but there still seems to be ample pollen ready to be released. The very warm conditions will present excellent conditions to test the overall progress of the pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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