The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 28 – TX/OK:. The region today will remain very cold with the effects of the latest blast of cold arctic air. To the north skies will be clearing after the chance of some light flurries overnight. Temperatures will be climbing from very cold conditions but today’s high temperatures will only be in the mid-30s. Winds will be from the northeast at moderate conditions across the region. Temperatures to the south will be in the mid to upper 30s today. Cloudy conditions will remain across central Texas with the chance of frozen precipitation along with rain and sleet between San Antonio and Waco. The best conditions across the Edwards Plateau will get high temperatures at or just above the 40 degree mark but with precipitation across the area. Tonight very cold conditions drop back in with the warmest area, San Antonio expecting to be in the mid-20s. Most of the region will be in the low to mid-teens. Winds will be from the north and northeast at moderate to light levels. Tomorrow the warm-up will begin with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Winds will be from the southeast across the Plateau and from the northeast in the surrounding communities. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 40s in most areas with the lower 50s across the Edwards Plateau. Wind will begin as light conditions initially but build to more moderate conditions during the afternoon. Tomorrow night lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s across the region. Winds will be from the south at light to moderate levels,

Trajectory weather: The air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with partly cloudy conditions and a chance of flurries overnight and into the morning. The north to northeast wind will continue today at light to moderate levels continuing to bring cold air into the area. Overnight very cold conditions will settle in with the region in the mid to upper teens. Winds will remain from the north but at light and variable conditions. Tomorrow the southern Oklahoma area will only climb to the mid-40s for a high temperature. The skies will be mostly sunny and winds will build from the southwest to moderately strong conditions during the day. Tomorrow night the skies will remain mostly clear and low temperatures will drop into the upper 20s. Winds will remain from the south. The dominant northerly winds today will result in any pollen released moving southward. However with the very cold conditions last night and today, along with frigid condition tomorrow night it is expected that the release of pollen will be minimal over the forecast period. If pollen is released tomorrow will be much better conditions than today and it will be moving northward on southerly breezes

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat Today and Low to Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be poor, with very cold conditions. Low temperatures over the forecast period will be in the teens in most places. High temperatures will struggle to get to the upper 30s today, however tomorrow mid-40s are expected. The overnight cold conditions may lag tomorrow’s daytime response as it will take some time for the trees to warm. Tonight temperatures will fall into the teens across Oklahoma but warming will begin tomorrow and tomorrow night the lows will be in the upper 20s. We will be watching to see if and by how much the pollen counts rebound as the warm-up continues this week. As we look back to the last really good conditions pollen had begun to diminish a bit We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season, and to date we have not observed an significant drop off.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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