The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

High

Tulsa

High

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 30 – TX/OK:. The region will begin the day in the 30 degree range region wide. Skies will be mostly sunny during the day and temperatures will be in the 60’s across the Edwards Plateau with upper 50s in the Dallas/ Ft. Worth region northward into central Oklahoma. To the southwest in San Angelo the 70s will just be achieved during the afternoon. Winds today will be from the south at strong levels. Most areas will see winds in the mid to upper 20 miles per hour range. The Dallas/Ft. Worth region will see gusts approaching 40 miles per hour at times. The southerly winds will bring humidity northward and thus tonight partly cloudy conditions will build in. The areas along the eastern Edwards Plateau will have a slight chance of sprinkles to the west and fog along with drizzle northwards along the I-35 corridor. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s over the Plateau. In the edge communities lows will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Winds will become lighter, however strong conditions will remain in and around northern Texas and the Dallas/ Ft. Worth metro region. North into Oklahoma winds will lessen and temperatures will be in the low 40s to upper 30s. Tomorrow similar conditions will repeat themselves but with warmer conditions. The southerly winds will bring mostly sunny skies across the Plateau with partly cloudy skies in the edge communities and northward along the I=35 corridor. The edge communities will have patchy morning fog in areas and a chance of some light drizzle. Temperatures will be climbing into the 70s across central Texas with upper 70s occurring in the central portions of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the south once again at moderately strong levels. In Oklahoma, the southern border region will be in the low 60s but with a light westerly winds. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will build in again with a dominant flow from the south. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s, to the west on the Edwards Plateau. The rest of the Plateau and in the edge communities, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. The southerly winds will be maintained from the south at moderate levels. In Oklahoma an incursion of colder air will result in low temperatures dropping into the 30s, however the colder conditions will not extend as far south as the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with mostly sunny conditions and a southerly flow over the region at moderate to strong conditions. Areas across northern Texas, just to the south, will see very gusty conditions. Temperatures will be into the low 60s today. The atmosphere will begin the day relatively stable but will become more buoyant as the trajectories push northward into central Oklahoma. The southerly flow will bring anything entrained within the air column towards the north. This will include pollen released and entrained over Texas. The forecast calls for the southerly winds to remain in this configuration today through tonight. Winds will be moderate to strong at times thus the atmosphere will have good conditions for entraining pollen and moving it northwards. Tomorrow a more westerly flow will occur but winds return to a southeasterly flow tomorrow night. The 48 hour trajectories show the air mass moving across central Oklahoma during the forecast period at the lowest levels. At higher elevations the trajectories move northwards into Kansas. As the day warms and the skies begin to clear pollen release is expected throughout the region where the plants exist. The windy and gusty conditions will aid the entrainment as well as the travel of the pollen to the north.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be very good with warming under clear, sunny skies. Winds will begin the day at moderate levels building to strong conditions this afternoon. Overnight breezy conditions at moderate levels will return. Tomorrow light winds will predominate. With the warming the trees will see temperatures this afternoon at levels that are conducive to pollination. Winds will be dominantly from the south and any pollen released has a good chance of becoming entrained within the atmosphere and moving northwards into central Oklahoma. Temperatures are heading into the 70s across Texas tomorrow. In Oklahoma conditions will be a bit cooler, with highs expected in the low 60s. The trajectories initially stay relatively stable but as they move northward they will encounter greater buoyancy keeping the pollen entrained. The 48 hour trajectories show the air mass primarily moving over the top of central Oklahoma. Expect pollen to be coming north from Texas in these areas. We continue to watch to see if and by how much the pollen counts rebound as the warm-up occurs this week. As we look back to the last really good conditions pollen had begun to diminish a bit We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season, and to date we have not observed an significant drop off.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page