The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 31 – TX/OK:. The region today will have a mix of conditions with overall warm weather for the forecast period. To the north in Oklahoma the day will begin with mostly sunny skies along the border with Texas and partly cloudy conditions further north. In Texas partly cloudy skies will prevail across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. In those edge communities partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions will develop during the day. Early there will be a chance of patchy fog and drizzle. Winds will be from the south across the region bringing warm humid air further north. However, northeast Oklahoma will see a shift to northerly winds this morning. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s across the area. In Oklahoma the southern border region will get into the upper 60s but central and northeast Oklahoma will remain colder with highs expected in the mid to upper 40s. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will build back in to the region. In Texas the lows will be mild with upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau and 50s and 60s in the edge communities northward along the I-35 corridor. After midnight patchy fog and drizzle can be expected in areas. Winds will remain from the south at moderate conditions. The edge communities will see higher wind gusts in the 20 to 25 miles per hour range. In Oklahoma temperatures will be much colder overnight with lows along the southern border in the upper 30s and Oklahoma City in the upper 20s. Tomorrow southern Oklahoma will see a 20% chance of rain and highs in the lower 50s. Overnight the light and variable winds will be overtaken by a more northerly flow. Skies will be partly cloudy tomorrow. The partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will extend southward in the morning across Texas. On the Edwards Plateau the cloudy conditions will persist, while in the edge communities partly sunny skies will eventually emerge. There will be a chance of drizzle and patchy morning fog in most areas with the southern edge communities potentially getting a shower from the cloudiness. Temperatures across Texas will return back into the 70 degree mark. Winds will remain from the south in most areas, but to the southwest on the plateau northwest and westerly air movement will begin to move into the region. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across Texas. Low temperatures will cool being in the mid-30s overnight. In the edge communities lows will remain mild and from San Antonio to Austin there will be a 20% to 30% chance of showers. The overall atmospheric flow will turn coming from the north and northeast at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions and a southerly flow over the Arbuckle Mountains at light to moderate levels. The southerly flow will be bringing the Texas trajectories and atmospheric flow northward. In central Oklahoma overnight temperatures in the 20s will give a chance of freezing rain. Tomorrow the southern Oklahoma region will have a 20% chance of rain and temperatures will climb into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds will pick up a bit with northerly winds at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night a moderate wind from the north will establish itself and bring low temperatures in the 20s back into the region. Areas across Texas will be moving pollen northward today. Entrainment and travel will be predominantly towards the north and then northeast. In Oklahoma significant pollen may push into the region and the trajectories show a long and fast trajectory towards the northeasten United States. This will occur as a front pushes in to the area from the north that extends towards the northeast. An pollen that can get entrained into the upper levels will potentially have a long ride to the northeast. By tomorrow conditions will keep any pollen in the atmosphere closer to home.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be good with warm conditions and sunny skies. Tomorrow will be cooler and partly cloudy skies will overtake the region. Winds will begin the day at light levels from the south along the border building to moderate conditions tomorrow. With a more southerly flow temperatures will be in the upper 60s today, then fall into the 30s tonight. As the front moves over the region late tonight and into tomorrow winds will switch coming from the north at moderate conditions. The change tonight in southern Oklahoma will be mimicked late tomorrow and tomorrow night across Texas. By tomorrow night the overall region will be dominated by north to northeasterly breezes at light to moderate conditions. Temperatures tomorrow will only get into the 50 degree range with the colder atmosphere brought by the northerly winds. We continue to watch to see if and by how much the pollen counts rebound as the warm-up occurs this week. As we look back to the last really good conditions pollen had begun to diminish a bit. We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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