The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 February 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, February 3 – TX/OK: The region will begin today with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures on the cold side. In Oklahoma along the border with Texas the high temperatures will remain in the low 30s today. To the south warmer conditions will build in but not by much with the highs across the region today being in the low 50s. In Oklahoma winds will be light and variable. Across Texas the winds will be from the northeast in the edge communities to the north up the I-35 corridor. On the Plateau they will be from southeast. Winds will be mostly light across the region. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will return across the area as will the chance of rain. In Oklahoma will be the chance of a wintery mix with a 40% plus of snow and freezing rain. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and winds will be light from the east. Across Texas the chance of precipitation will be from 50% in the north to 20% on the western Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be in the mid-30s across the Plateau and to the mid-40s in the surrounding communities. An overall light flow from the south and southeast will occur over the region. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear with a quick warmup in store. Most of the region will begin the day with a continuation of the clouds and rain. In Oklahoma tomorrow will see a 40% to 50% chance of precipitation with temperatures remaining in the low 40s along the border and mid-30s. South across central Texas highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the west at moderate conditions and skies will begin partly cloudy but be clearing through the day. In the Edge communities the morning will remain cloudy and there will be a continuation of rainy conditions. High temperatures will be reaching into the low 60s and the predominant westerly winds will be at moderate levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will occur across the southern plains. Temperatures will be in the teens in southern Oklahoma and drop into the 20s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities warmer conditions will persist with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels across the region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and light and variable winds. High temperatures today will remain in the lower 30s. Tonight mostly cloudy conditions will build in with a 40% to 50% chance of precipitation across northern Texas and southern to central Oklahoma. In Oklahoma cold conditions will result in frozen precipitation in the form of snow and freezing rain. High temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s. Tomorrow the chance of rain and snow will continue. High temperatures will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Winds will remain light and variable and mostly from the northeast and east. Tomorrow night mostly to partly cloudy conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low teens. Winds will build from the north at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The atmosphere will be cold and dense at ground level and with the cold conditions little pollen is expected.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be marginal with cold conditions and temperatures in the lower 30s today and low 40s tomorrow. Starting tonight there will be a building chance of precipitation in the form of snow and freezing rain. This will continue into the morning. Poor conditions for pollination are expected over the entire forecast period. By tomorrow night a stronger northerly winds will drive temperatures into the low teens in central Oklahoma and mid-teens along the border with Texas. Tomorrow there will be warmer conditions across Texas and the overall wind pattern will potentially move entrained pollen, but the winds will be predominantly from the west thus any pollen would head towards the east. We continue to watch to see if and by how much the pollen counts rebound. The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future. As we look back many of the pollen levels have begun to diminish. We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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