The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, February 3 – TX/OK:. The region will begin today with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures on the cold side. In Oklahoma along the border with Texas the high temperatures will remain in the low 30s today. To the south warmer conditions will build in but not by much with the highs across the region today being in the low 50s. In Oklahoma winds will be light and variable. Across Texas the winds will be from the northeast in the edge communities to the north up the I-35 corridor. On the Plateau they will be from southeast. Winds will be mostly light across the region. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will return across the area as will the chance of rain. In Oklahoma will be the chance of a wintery mix with a 40% plus of snow and freezing rain. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and winds will be light from the east. Across Texas the chance of precipitation will be from 50% in the north to 20% on the western Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be in the mid-30s across the Plateau and to the mid-40s in the surrounding communities. An overall light flow from the south and southeast will occur over the region. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear with a quick warmup in store. Most of the region will begin the day with a continuation of the clouds and rain. In Oklahoma tomorrow will see a 40% to 50% chance of precipitation with temperatures remaining in the low 40s along the border and mid-30s. South across central Texas highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the west at moderate conditions and skies will begin partly cloudy but be clearing through the day. In the Edge communities the morning will remain cloudy and there will be a continuation of rainy conditions. High temperatures will be reaching into the low 60s and the predominant westerly winds will be at moderate levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will occur across the southern plains. Temperatures will be in the teens in southern Oklahoma and drop into the 20s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities warmer conditions will persist with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels across the region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over central Texas will begin the day with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a southeasterly flow over the Plateau and a northeasterly flow in the edge communities. Winds will be light. High temperatures today will remain in the mid to upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight mostly cloudy conditions will build in with a 40% to 50% chance of rain starting in Dallas moving south down the I-35 corridor. On the Edwards Plateau the chance of precipitation drops to 20%. Low temperatures will be above freezing but in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s. Tomorrow the edge communities will retain their chance of precipitation in the morning but that will clear and skies will be mostly sunny in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm with high readings in the 60s and the areas furthest south toying with the low 70s. Winds will be from the west and build from moderate to strong conditions across the Plateau. Tomorrow night lows will be in the 20s and winds from the northeast on the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities warmer conditions will prevail and winds will be from the north. The atmosphere will be buoyant today and the winds will move the air over Texas initially towards the northwest on southeasterly wind, then eventually tomorrow a more westerly wind will bring them back over northern Texas and central Oklahoma. The northward migration will eventually encounter a northerly wind tomorrow evening bringing them back southward. Overall winds will not be strong but he atmosphere will be buoyant. Tonight and tomorrow morning most of the northern areas will be subject to precipitation which tends to clean the skies of pollen and other entrained particles.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be marginal with warming conditions and temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. The warming from the weekend will bring high temperatures across the region into the mid 40s to just leaking into the low 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Going into the evening the chance of precipitation will be building. The greatest chance tonight and tomorrow will be in the edge communities. Tomorrow warm conditions and clearing skies with temperatures back in the 60s and low 70s will result in a high threat. By tomorrow night winds will be from the north once again and cooling conditions area expected. The trajectories will be buoyant and with the southerly winds today and tonight changing to westerly tomorrow will result in any pollen that is entrained moving north off of the Edwards Plateau towards the border region with Oklahoma and into central and northern Oklahoma. We continue to watch to see if and by how much the pollen counts rebound. The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future. As we look back many of the pollen levels have begun to diminish. We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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