The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 4 – TX/OK:. The region will begin today with cloudy skies and cold conditions to the north but warm conditions across the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma high temperatures will be in the mid-30s in Oklahoma City and low 40s southward across the border into the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region. There will be a significant chance of precipitation in these communities with it falling as snow to the north and rain in northern Texas following but east of the I-35 corridor. To the south across the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy conditions will begin the day but sunny conditions will break out as the day progresses. Patchy fog will be common in the morning hours. High temperatures today will be in the mid- to low 60s with winds starting at moderate conditions from the southwest, then rotating during the afternoon to a more westerly condition. Winds from the west will be more moderate with some areas have strong wind conditions. In the edge communities, temperatures will be another five degrees warmer with San Antonio expected to get to 70 degrees. The edge communities will have a chance (20%) of rain this morning but clearing will begin as the day progresses. Tonight low temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s across the Edwards Plateau and the edge communities. Winds will switch again coming from the north and bringing cold air into the region. The Plateau will fall into the upper 20s to mid-30s, the edge communities will be in the mid-30s. There will be colder conditions to the north with the Dallas/Ft. Worth area falling to the upper 20’s and along the border with Oklahoma readings will be in the upper teens with Oklahoma City expected in the single digits. Tomorrow, partly cloudy skies will greet the day with high temperatures forecast for southern Oklahoma in the mid-20s. The dominant northerly winds will bring cold air across the region and high temperatures across Texas will be in the 30’s to low 40’s on the Edwards Plateau, and in the upper 40s to low 50’s in the edge communities . Winds will be from the north and northeast at moderate to strong conditions. The Dallas/Ft. Worth area will see gust of up to 30 miles per hour. Tomorrow night the entire region will fall below freezing with the Edwards Plateau in the low 20s and temperatures dropping northward. The border region with Oklahoma will be in the low teens and Oklahoma City will be in the single digits again. Winds will remain from the north at moderate winds strength.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over southern Oklahoma will begin the day with cloudy conditions and light and variable winds. High temperatures today will remain in the upper 30s and low 40s. There was a 50% chance of snow and rain overnight into the morning hours. Winds today will be turning coming from the north with more cold air. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will return and low temperatures will be very cold with the area being in the upper teens. Winds from the north will continue and begin to build across the region. Tomorrow the high temperatures are expected to be in the teens to low 20s. Skies will be mostly to partly cloudy and winds will continue from the north. Tomorrow night a 20% chance of snow will occur and low temperatures area expected in the low teens along the border and in the single digits north in Oklahoma City. Winds will continue at moderate levels form the northeast.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow will be poor with cold conditions and temperatures in the 30s and low 40s today and then tomorrow temperatures will not get above freezing. Today there is a significant chance of snow across the area, and many places have already had some accumulation. This will continue into the morning. Poor conditions for pollination are expected over the entire forecast period. By tomorrow the strong northerly winds will drive temperatures into the teens and low 20s for the highs. The overall trend of pollen counts seems to be waning. The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future. As we look back traditionally we are getting close to the end of the season. We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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