The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 5 – TX/OK:. The region will begin today with mostly cloudy skies and very cold conditions to the north and seasonal conditions across the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma high temperatures today will only be in the upper teens and low 20s. The overall flow will be from the north and cold air will dominate the northern areas as well as across Texas over the forecast period. Today the Edwards Plateau will have mostly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching into the low 40s to the east and mid to low 30s to the west. Overnight temperatures will fall into the low 20s and teens. Winds will be from the northeast at light to moderate conditions. In the edge communities temperatures today will struggle to get to the upper 40s and mid-50s to the south. Early partly-cloudy skies will give way during the day to mostly sunny conditions. Winds will also be from the northeast at moderate levels. Across the northern area, including the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region temperatures will be in the mid-30s to upper 20s near the Texas/Oklahoma border. Overnight cold conditions will bring low temperatures across the Edwards Plateau to the low 20s and upper teens. The edge communities will be in the mid-20s and to the north drop into the teens with Oklahoma bottoming out in the single digits. Winds across the region will be moderate and from the northeast. Tomorrow cloudy skies will dominate with a building chance of snow across Oklahoma and the border area with Texas. The remainder of the Texas high temperatures will be in the 30s. There will be a chance of freezing drizzle in the edge communities. Winds will remain cold and at light to moderate conditions from the northeast. Tomorrow night the same conditions will remain with cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions, temperatures across the region in the 20s across Texas and low teens to single digits in Oklahoma. Winds will continue in most areas from the northeast at light to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over the southern plains will begin the day with mostly cloudy conditions and a northeasterly flow as very cold air covers the region. Conditions over the forecast period will be cold with high temperatures today struggling into the low 20s in the border region with Texas. Winds will be moderately strong from the northeast. Overall conditions for pollen release will be poor. In addition, the air will be dense and cold and will travel at or near ground level within the populations. Tomorrow temperatures will return to the same cold conditions the forecast area not getting above the low 20s. There will be a chance of snow across the area tonight after midnight and then tomorrow into tomorrow night. Pollen release today and tomorrow will be restricted by the very cold conditions, cloudy skies and greater amounts of humidity in the air. Conditions today will be similar to conditions tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be poor with high temperatures in the teens and upper 20s. Overnight there will be a 20% chance of snow after midnight. The chance of snow will build tomorrow to the 40% chance level. Winds will be moderate to strong from the northeast. Temperatures overnight will be in the single digits to the north and low teens along the border with Texas. Similar conditions will exist tomorrow with high temperatures remaining in the teens to low 20s. The chance of snow will remain and winds will continue to be from the northeast. Tomorrow night lows will return to the low teens and single digits and winds will be light and variable. On top of the marginal conditions, the overall trend of pollen counts seems to be waning. The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future. As we look back traditionally we are getting close to the end of the season We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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