The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 6 February 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, February 6 TX/OK: The region will begin today with cloudy skies and very cold conditions across the region. Overnight temperatures were below freezing and cold conditions will remain in place during the forecast period. From Oklahoma City south down the I-35 corridor, precipitation is likely in the form of snow to the north and freezing drizzle to the south. There is a 70% chance of snow in Oklahoma, 50% chance in Dallas, and freezing drizzle south to San Antonio. Temperatures today will remain in the teens to low twenties in Oklahoma. In Texas the Edwards Plateau will only reach the upper 20s and low 30s today. The edge communities will remain mostly in the 30s with San Antonio forecast to only touch the 40 degree mark. Winds will be from the north and northeast blowing across the region to the southwest. Tonight temperatures will be in the low teens and single digits north, and across Texas the Plateau will drop into the teens. The edge communities will be in the upper 20s to 30 degrees. Winds will remain from the north and northeast but become light in most areas. Tomorrow there will be a 50% chance of snow across the north decreasing to the south but the Dallas/Fort Worth area will have a 20% chance in the morning. The return of frozen drizzle will once again be a possibility south along the I-35 corridor to San Antonio. High temperatures across Texas tomorrow will warm into the mid-40s in most areas. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will begin to shift to a more southerly flow. Tomorrow night the skies will begin to break up with partly cloudy conditions. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s overnight on the Edwards Plateau. To the north Oklahoma will see snow once again but with warmer low temperatures than have been seen in the last couple of days. Winds will be shifting, coming from the south and southwest.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over Oklahoma will begin the day with cloudy conditions and a northeasterly flow as very cold air covers the region. Conditions over the forecast period will be cold with high temperatures today struggling to reach 20 degrees in the warmest areas. The rest of the region will remain in the teens. Winds will be light to moderate from the north and northeast. Today there is a 70% chance of snow in Oklahoma, declining to a 50% towards the south in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area. Overall conditions for pollen release will be poor for release. The dominant northeasterly winds will move the atmosphere towards the southwest. The overall wind pattern will then turn the winds northward again over southcentral Texas. This is reflected in the trajectories. Tomorrow temperatures will climb with most areas in the low upper 20s and low 30s. The conditions will once again be very poor for pollination. Winds will begin to shift and become from the southeast. Tomorrow night lows will return to the teens and low 20s. The chance of snow will diminish to 20%.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be poor with temperatures in the teens and lower 20s for the highs. Winds will be from the northeast at light to moderate conditions. Tonight lows will be in the single digits and low teens, then tomorrow highs will warm a bit but only reach the mid-20s to upper low 30s as the high temperature. Winds will be light in most areas but will have switched with an overall southeasterly flow over the Oklahoma region. There will be poor conditions for pollen release across the area again tomorrow. On top of the marginal conditions, the overall trend of pollen counts seems to be waning. The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future. As we look back traditionally we are getting close to the end of the season We continue to check the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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