The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather:  Friday, February 7 – TX/OK:.  The region will begin today with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and cold conditions across the region.  Overnight temperatures were below freezing and cold conditions will remain in place today and then show a slight warm up tomorrow.  From Oklahoma City south down the I-35 corridor, precipitation is likely in the form of freezing drizzle and sleet this morning turning to drizzle and rain this afternoon.  High Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s on the Edwards Plateau but remain in the upper 30s in the edge communities from San Antonio to the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region.  Across the area there is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation in any one location.  The edge communities will remain under a northeast flow of cold air, whereas the Edwards Plateau will see the overall flow coming from the south at slightly stronger conditions.  Tonight the Edwards Plateau will be mostly clear with temperatures below freezing and the western portion into the upper 20s.  In the edge communities temperatures will remain above freezing but be in the 30s.  In Oklahoma overnight mostly clear skies and very cold conditions will remain.  Lows will be in the upper teens and low 20s.  Tomorrow warming will begin across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 60s.  The warm conditions will reach the Dallas/Fort Worth area with upper 50s expected in the afternoon.  In Oklahoma, it will be warmer than it has been lately, the upper 40s are expected near the border and further north conditions will remain in the 30s.  Across the Edwards Plateau winds will be light to moderate from the west.  In the edge communities a more southwesterly flow will occur at light levels, and to the north winds will be from the west and southwest at light levels as well.  Overnight tomorrow, partly cloudy conditions will dominate across Texas with lows remaining above freezing.  The Plateau will drop into the mid-30s while the edge communities and areas in the I-35 corridor will remain in the 40s.  Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels.  Northward in the border area with Oklahoma stretching northward cold conditions will remain with lows in the 20s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass over central Texas will begin the day with cloudy conditions and the chance of precipitation region wide.  In areas that awaken to freezing temperatures have the potential of freezing drizzle and sleet.  If buildup has occurred dangerous driving conditions will exist.  Today as the air warms the frozen precipitation will melt and there will be a continuous chance of drizzle during the warming portion of the day.  Winds across the Edwards Plateau will be light to moderate from the south, whereas areas along the edge of the Plateau and north into the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region will remain from the cold northeast.  Tonight the Plateau will become mostly clear and temperatures will drop below freezing into the low 30s and upper 20s.  Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest.  In the edge communities mostly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures above freezing to the south but below freezing northwards towards Waco and the Dallas/ Ft. Worth area.  Winds will be from the southeast initially moving towards a more southerly direction overnight.  Tomorrow warming will occur with most areas in central Texas building into the upper 60s.  Winds will be stronger on the Plateau, at moderate levels, with an overall flow from the west.  In the edge communities the winds will remain light and from the southwest.  Cloudy conditions along the I-35 corridor will become mostly sunny during the day, whereas mostly sunny skies over the Plateau region will become partly cloudy.  Tomorrow night the partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region.  Low temperatures will be in the mid-30s on the plateau and in the mid to lower 40s in the surrounding communities.  The southwesterly flow will dominate at light levels. 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be poor with temperatures in the 30s to low-40s for the highs.  All areas will have the chance at frozen precipitation this morning then moist and humid conditions during the rest of the day.  Winds will be from the south over the Plateau and from the northeast at moderate conditions elsewhere.  Tonight lows will be in the low thirties to upper 20s under mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions. Tomorrow highs will warm into the 60s across Texas.  Winds will be from the west at moderate conditions across the Plateau and from the southwest in the edge communities at lighter levels.  Tomorrow night the Plateau will be just at the freezing mark whereas the rest of the region will be above freezing.  In general a mix of weather will be across the area with cold, cloudy conditions and the chance of precipitation throughout the day.  These are generally moderate to poor conditions for pollen release, however we are nearing the traditional end of the pollination season so we expect low levels to occur if where pollen is still being release.  Tomorrow will be the real test as warm conditions will be across the area with the densest population of trees.  We have seen indications of a significant relaxation of pollen in the atmosphere during the last week of very marginal weather conditions.  Overall we see that the overall pollen counts seem to be waning.  The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future.  As we look back traditionally we are getting close to the end of the season.  We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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