The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather:  Saturday/Sunday, February 8/9 – TX/OK:.  Warm weather will return to the Texas region today with partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning burning off to mostly sunny and clear skies this afternoon.  Along the I-35 corridor foggy conditions will occur this morning .  To the north in Oklahoma partly cloudy skies but with the chance of freezing fog will occur today as the sun rises.  Highs in Oklahoma today will be in the 30s to the north and low to mid 40s in the border region.  Winds will be light from the south.  Across Texas warmer temperatures will build in on southerly winds.  Highs today will be in 60s to low 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the 60s in the edge communities.  Winds will be from the south to southwest at light conditions.  On the Plateau, later in the day winds will become stronger.  Tonight mostly clear conditions will prevail across Texas.  Low temperatures will be seasonal dropping into the 30s and 40s but staying above the freezing level.  Winds will remain from the south and southwest at light to moderate conditions.  In Oklahoma mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to once again drop into the 20s but winds will be light and variable.  Tomorrow, Oklahoma will have partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures will remain in the 30s to low 40s.  Winds will have switched, coming from the northeast which will be a signal for similar changes eventually occurring across Texas.  Tomorrow in Texas mostly sunny conditions and warm temperatures will be in order.  Most areas will reach into the mid-70s.  Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate conditions.  Tomorrow night the skies will become partly cloudy then mostly cloudy after midnight.  Temperatures will drop with the Plateau and north portions of Texas back in the low 30’s and the edge communities dropping into the low 40s.  Winds that had been from the south and southwest will change coming out of the northeast at moderate levels bringing cold air for another cool down.  Across Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of snow in Oklahoma City and lows will be back in the upper teens to low 20s. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass over the Arbuckle Mountains will move to the north and northeast during the day today. Overnight the shift in winds and cold air will move in over the area.  The trajectories today will be near the surface and light wind conditions will mean that they do not travel very far.  As the next push of cold air occurs it will slide in under the current air mass and thus tomorrow many of the trajectories will begin to move up in the atmosphere.  The overall light wind strengths suggest that the trajectories will not move far over the forecast period.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release across southern Oklahoma are poor with forecast highs in the upper 30s to low 40s today and even colder tomorrow. As we look back, we are getting close to the traditional end of the season.  We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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