The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, February 8/9 – TX/OK:.  Warm weather will return to the Texas region today with partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning burning off to mostly sunny and clear skies this afternoon.  Along the I-35 corridor foggy conditions will occur this morning .  To the north in Oklahoma partly cloudy skies but with the chance of freezing fog will occur today as the sun rises.  Highs in Oklahoma today will be in the 30s to the north and low to mid 40s in the border region.  Winds will be light from the south.  Across Texas warmer temperatures will build in on southerly winds.  Highs today will be in 60s to low 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the 60s in the edge communities.  Winds will be from the south to southwest at light conditions.  On the Plateau, later in the day winds will become stronger.  Tonight mostly clear conditions will prevail across Texas.  Low temperatures will be seasonal dropping into the 30s and 40s but staying above the freezing level.  Winds will remain from the south and southwest at light to moderate conditions.  In Oklahoma mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to once again drop into the 20s but winds will be light and variable.  Tomorrow, Oklahoma will have partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures will remain in the 30s to low 40s.  Winds will have switched, coming from the northeast which will be a signal for similar changes eventually occurring across Texas.  Tomorrow in Texas mostly sunny conditions and warm temperatures will be in order.  Most areas will reach into the mid-70s.  Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate conditions.  Tomorrow night the skies will become partly cloudy then mostly cloudy after midnight.  Temperatures will drop with the Plateau and north portions of Texas back in the low 30’s and the edge communities dropping into the low 40s.  Winds that had been from the south and southwest will change coming out of the northeast at moderate levels bringing cold air for another cool down.  Across Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of snow in Oklahoma City and lows will be back in the upper teens to low 20s. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass over central Texas will begin the day with cloudy and partly cloudy conditions and the chance of patchy fog across the edge communities. With the southwesterly winds, at light to moderate conditions, the region will warm significantly from last week with conditions expected to be in the 70s in the central Edwards Plateau and 60s to the west and in the edge communities.  Overnight clear to mostly clear skies will occur with lows in the 30s across the Plateau and in the low 40s in the edge communities.  Northward towards the Dallas/Ft. Worth region cooler conditions will prevail with the metro region expected to be in the med-30s.  Winds will be from the southwest at light levels.  Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will occur after morning clouds burn off.  Temperatures are heading once again into the mid-70s across the central Texas region.  Dallas/Ft. Worth will be in the mid 50’s and northward towards the border with Oklahoma colder air will drop temperatures into the lower 40s.  Winds will be from the southwest at moderate conditions across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities.  To the north, colder conditions will occur along with the winds moving to a northeasterly direction.  Overnight the shift in winds and cold air will move in over the area.  The trajectories today will be near the surface and light wind conditions will mean that they do not travel very far.  As the next push of cold air occurs it will slide in under the current air mass and thus tomorrow many of the trajectories will begin to move up in the atmosphere.  The overall light wind strengths suggest that the trajectories will not move far over the forecast period.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release across Texas today will be good with temperatures in the 70s and dry conditions.   Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest over the region.  Tonight lows will be in the thirties with the southern edge communities staying near 40 degrees.  Tomorrow highs will warm into the 70s across Texas.  Winds will be from the southwest at moderate conditions across the Plateau.  Tomorrow night the Plateau will be in the mid-30s with the edge communities in the mid-40s.  These conditions are generally good for pollen release, however we are nearing the traditional end of the pollination season and have begun to see the tailing off of pollen levels so we expect low levels to occur where pollen is still being released.  Tomorrow will be the real test with very warm conditions across the area with the densest population of trees.  Overall pollen counts seem to be waning.  The current forecast presents really good conditions for pollen release and this will be a test of the amount of pollen left in the trees.  As we look back, we are getting close to the traditional end of the season.  We continue to test the overall progress of the pollination season as it nears its end.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Not available 

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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