The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, February 10 – TX/OK: Cold weather will return to the Southern Oklahoma and Texas region today with mostly cloudy and cloudy skies today.  Early this morning with low temperatures there will be a chance of freezing drizzle across the Edwards Plateau and north in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area extending into Oklahoma.  In the Oklahoma City region there will be a 50% chance of snow.  Lows to the north will be in the mid-20s to 30 degrees.  Winds will be from the north at moderate to strong conditions.  In Texas, temperatures will mostly be in the 30s to the north in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, in the 40s across the Plateau and in the Austin area, and just into the low 50s in San Antonio.  The region will have a northeasterly flow at moderate levels.  The Plateau will have a 20% chance of freezing drizzle early turning to just drizzle during the afternoon.  Tonight cloudy skies will prevail across Texas and mostly cloudy conditions in Oklahoma.  In all areas the chance of freezing rain and drizzle will occur from 20% across the Plateau increasing to 30% and 40% in the edge communities.  The Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region will have a 20% chance of frozen precipitation.  In Oklahoma there will be a 30% chance of snow and sleet.  Temperatures will be in the 20s in all areas except for the edge communities where they will flirt with the freezing mark in the 30s.  Winds will maintain their moderate speeds from the northeast.  Tomorrow the chance of freezing rain will increase.  The Plateau will have a 30% chance, whereas the edge communities will see a 50% chance of frozen and non-frozen precipitation.  To the north and into Oklahoma it will grade from freezing rain in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area to snow in Oklahoma.  Winds will remain from the north at moderate levels with greater wind speed in the edge communities.  Tomorrow night will be mostly to partly cloudy.  The chance of frozen precipitation will remain in the edge communities and across the Edwards Plateau.  Lows will be in the 20s, except for the edge communities where the low will drop into the low 30s. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass over Oklahoma will begin the day with mostly cloudy conditions and the chance of snow to the north and patchy frozen drizzle across the Arbuckle Mountain area.  The trees will see both frozen drizzle in the morning with continued drizzle during the afternoon.  Overnight there is a 30% chance of snow with winds from the north at 10 miles per hour.  Tomorrow similar conditions will exist with snow continuing during the day.  High temperatures will be in the low 30s.  Winds will remain from the north.  Tomorrow night the skies will clear partially and the low temperatures will drop into the low to mid-20s.  Overall, there will be very poor conditions for pollination occurring today and tomorrow.  With the dominant northerly winds over the forecast period anything in the atmosphere will move south.  The cold air will favor dense air that moves near the ground.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be marginal with high temperatures remaining in the low 30 degree range.  Winds will be light to moderate in the area of the trees and from the north.  Tonight lows will return to the teens and low 20s and winds will remain light, from the north at 10 miles per hour.  Tomorrow conditions will be similarly poor for any kind of pollen release.  Snow is forecast for the day and highs will mimic the low temperatures of today.  Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid- to low 20s.  On top of the marginal conditions, the overall trend of pollen counts has been waning.  The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future.  As we look back traditionally we are at the end of the season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page