The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 February 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, February 10 – TX/OK:.  Cold weather will return to the Southern Oklahoma and Texas region today with mostly cloudy and cloudy skies.  Early this morning with low temperatures there will be a chance of freezing drizzle across the Edwards Plateau and north in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area extending into Oklahoma.  In the Oklahoma City region there will be a 50% chance of snow.  Lows to the north will be in the mid-20s to 30 degrees.  Winds will be from the north at moderate to strong conditions.  In Texas, temperatures will mostly be in the 30s to the north in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, in the 40s across the Plateau and in the Austin area, and just into the low 50s in San Antonio.  The region will have a northeasterly flow at moderate levels.  The Plateau will have a 20% chance of freezing drizzle early turning to just drizzle during the afternoon.  Tonight cloudy skies will prevail across Texas and mostly cloudy conditions in Oklahoma.  In all areas the chance of freezing rain and drizzle will occur from 20% across the Plateau increasing to 30% and 40% in the edge communities.  The Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region will have a 20% chance of frozen precipitation.  In Oklahoma there will be a 30% chance of snow and sleet.  Temperatures will be in the 20s in all areas except for the edge communities where they will flirt with the freezing mark in the 30s.  Winds will maintain their moderate speeds from the northeast.  Tomorrow the chance of freezing rain will increase.  The Plateau will have a 30% chance, whereas the edge communities will see a 50% chance of frozen and non-frozen precipitation.  To the north and into Oklahoma it will grade from freezing rain in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area to snow in Oklahoma.  Winds will remain from the north at moderate levels with greater wind speed in the edge communities.  Tomorrow night will be mostly to partly cloudy.  The chance of frozen precipitation will remain in the edge communities and across the Edwards Plateau.  Lows will be in the 20s, except for the edge communities where the low will drop into the low 30s. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass over Texas will begin the day with cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions and the chance of freezing drizzle on the Edwards Plateau.  The temperatures will be mostly in the low 40s with only San Antonio eventually reaching into the low 50s.  Winds will be moderate from the northeast. Overnight the chance of freezing rain and sleet increases across the region.  Temperatures will remain in the 20s on the Edwards Plateau and in the mid-30s across the edge communities.  Winds will remain from the northeast at moderate to strong conditions.  The chance of precipitation will run from 20% across the Edwards Plateau and to the north towards the Dallas/Ft Worth region. It will be 30% to 40% in the edge communities.  Tomorrow night conditions will remain very similar with the chance of rain returning to all of the areas except the far western Edwards Plateau region.  Lows will be in the low 30s in the edge communities and in the 20s in the other regions.  Overall, there will be poor conditions for pollination occurring today and tomorrow.  Very marginal conditions will exist today with slightly warmer conditions but it is expected to be moist and cold with drizzle.  Tomorrow conditions deteriorate even more with none of the sites getting out of the mid-40s.  With the dominant northerly winds over the forecast period anything in the atmosphere will move south.  The cold air will favor dense air that moves near the ground.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release today will be marginal with high temperatures just getting into the upper 40s in the most southern areas of the tree population.  Winds will be moderate from the northeast.  Tonight lows will return to the mid- to upper 20s across the Edwards Plateau and to the north.  In the edge communities lows will remain in the mid-30s.  The chance of frozen precipitation in the form of drizzle and sleet will increase across the area.  The wet conditions will continue tomorrow with it being frozen early and then warming a bit during the afternoon.  High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 40s at the warmest locations.  Winds will remain from the north at moderate to strong conditions.  Tomorrow night temperatures will be either at or below the freezing mark with the continued chance of freezing precipitation remaining on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities.  On top of the marginal conditions, the overall trend of the pollen levels has been waning.  The current forecast presents a mix of weather conditions and that will continue into the foreseeable future.  As we look back traditionally we are at the end of the pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Not available

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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