Date Issued: 1 January 1999
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional weather: Friday, January 1 - TX/OK: Developing storm system moving through the region today and to the east on Saturday. Mostly cloudy north.....partly cloudy west TX....variably cloudy elsewhere today. Chance of rain and/or frozen precipitation parts of Oklahoma, chance of showers much of eastern Texas. Highs today 30's and 40's OK, 50's to 70's TX. Lows tonight 20's and 30's north and west, 40's and 50's south and east. Clearing and cooler on Saturday behind the system, highs in the 20's and 30's OK, mostly 40's and 50's TX.
Trajectory weather: Austin: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, high in the upper 60's. Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms tonight, low in the upper 40's. Rain or snow likely on Saturday, high in the 30's. Junction/San Angelo: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon, high in the upper 60's. Rain or thunderstorms likely tonight, low near 50. Gradual clearing on Saturday, high in the 50's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Mild Threat today.....Low Saturday *** Interesting divergence of trajectories from the Plateau today. Air parcels from the eastern end of the Plateau get caught up in the developing low pressure system; those from the central and west do not. Conditions for pollen release today are unfavorable except on the western side of the Plateau where they are of mixed favorability. Humidities are running too high on most of the Plateau for much pollen release, but western sections are drier and some release may occur during the afternoon hours. Potential effects on the populace should be limited as any airborne pollen will almost certainly be washed out tonight. However....before that time....residents of the western side of the Plateau... northward towards Abilene...may experience some ill effects from today's release. On Saturday.... little pollen release is expected. Rain is expected today and tonight and humidities will still be above the tolerance ranges over much of the source region . Any release that does occur on Saturday will come from the western side of the Plateau. Trajectories go due south....so residents of Del Rio may have some airborne pollen moving through their area Saturday evening, though amounts will not be significant. TK
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by green dot on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX
Austin, TX
Junction, TX
San Angelo, TX
Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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