University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Date Issued: 7 January 1998

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 7 - TX/OK: Polar cold front dropping down from the north will get hung up along the TX/OK border. Developing low pressure area in eastern Texas as well. Result.....sunny west half of region, cloudy with morning fog and drizzle eastern half. Cold in OK with freezing drizzle/freezing rain today through Friday. Continued cloudy eastern TX with fog/drizzle late night through midday hours, partly cloudy to sunny western TX. Texas highs in the 50's north but mostly 60's and 70's. Lows tonight 20's and 30's OK and west TX....40's and 50's elsewhere.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Mostly cloudy with morning drizzle and fog, high in the low 70's. Continued chance of drizzle or rain tonight, low in the low 50's. Cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Friday, high in the 50's. Junction/San Angelo: Partly cloudy today, high in the low 70's. Tonight.....partly to mostly cloudy, low in the mid-40's, chance of drizzle north-central TX. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain on Friday, high around 60 but turning colder during the day.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** SERIOUS Threat west.....Low Threat east *** Variable conditions again today across the plateau. Humid with light winds eastern sections......mostly sunny and drier with moderate winds western sections. Little release expected eastern areas....some release possible afternoon hours central areas....significant release possible from the western areas. Consequently, the regions where people may feel the effects from today's release include west-central TX this afternoon.......western and central areas of north Texas tonight (like Abilene and Wichita Falls)....and central Texas on Friday. The drizzle and/or rain expected tonight and tomorrow will likely wash out much of the airborne pollen after it makes the turn south. Winds from Austin, ahead of the developing low pressure area, flow more quickly off to the northeast.....but residents along that path should be in little danger due to the expected low release amounts. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by green dot on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

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