University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Date Issued: 8 January 1998

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday/Saturday, January 8/9 - TX/OK: Polar cold front that was stalled yesterday will push southward through the region today and tonight. Low pressure area that was developing in Texas yesterday will move to the east, kicking off showers or thunderstorms in eastern sections of Texas as it goes. Cloudy this morning in OK and northern and eastern TX with fog, drizzle (TX), or freezing drizzle (OK). Highs in the 30's and 40's north, 60's and 70's most of TX. Winds shifting to the north with falling temperatures most areas this afternoon. Chance of showers eastern and southern sections this afternoon and evening before the front passes. Colder tonight with lows in the 10's and 20's north and west, 30's and 40's south and east. Becoming partly cloudy to sunny on Saturday and cold, highs in the 30's OK, 40's and 50's TX. Lows Saturday night mostly in the 20's with some 10's OK. Warmer on Sunday and continued dry.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy west....mostly cloudy east with a chance of morning drizzle, high in the 70's. Variably cloudy tonight....chance of evening showers east....low in the low 40's. Decreasing cloudiness on Saturday, high near 60.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** SERIOUS Threat west.....Moderate Threat east *** Conditions along the western sections of the Plateau are quite favorable for pollen release. Humidities in the eastern sections are still high, but temperature and wind conditions are favorable. Moderate to Significant release expected today, especially in the western sections of the Edwards Plateau. With trajetories headed to the south.....a broad area of central and southern Texas will be affected by today's pollen release. This includes the Edwards Plateau...the Texas hill country and south-central Texas....the Texas coastal bend and the Rio Grande plains ......and deep South Texas during the next 24 hours. Most of the pollen release will occur in the western Edwards Plateau area, so residents of the Texas hill country and the Rio Grande plains will feel the worst effects. On Saturday......cooler temperatures should dampen release amounts compared to today. A moderate release event is expected with conditions on the Plateau favorable during the afternoon hours. Trajectories from the eastern side go south......while those from the western side go south for 12 hours and then turn back to the north. Residents of central Texas....the hill country......and south-central Texas are the people most likely to be affected by Saturday's release event. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by green dot on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

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