University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Date Issued: 20 January 1998

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 20 - TX/OK: Weak frontal system in the region, a precursor of a larger system that will more fully develop during the next day or so. Dry today, but a chance of showers tonight and Thursday for areas of OK. Morning clouds and fog are a big problem in parts of Texas, mostly south-central. Otherwise.....partly cloudy to sunny and very warm with highs today in the 60's OK, 70's and 80's TX. Lows tonight mostly in the 40's and 50's.

Trajectory weather: Dense fog early east....then partly cloudy to mostly sunny and very warm, high in the low 80's. Partly cloudy tonight, low in the mid-50's.....slight chance of a shower in southeast OK for the Austin trajectory. Variably cloudy with a slight chance of showers on Thursday, high in the 60's. Better chance of showers for the Austin trajectory as it moves into Missouri Thursday afternoon.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** SERIOUS Threat West ...... Moderate Threat East *** Situation quite similar to Tuesday. Highly favorable conditions west....moderately favorable conditions east. Significant release expected from western sections of the Plateau with release likely in the eastern sections during the afternoon. Airborne pollen will be moving through central Texas today.....north Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight.......southern and eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri on Thursday. Influx of pollen into Missouri will be limited by the expected washout on Thursday. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by green dot on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

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