University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Date Issued: 21 January 1998

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 21 - TX/OK: Low pressure system developing overhead today.....fully winding up overnight. Low clouds/fog this morning eastern areas of OK and TX, slight chance of showers today same locales. Highs today mostly 60's to 80's. Chance of showers eastern TX tonight. Rain/snow developing after midnight in OK, otherwise partly cloudy. Lows in the 30's north and west....40s' central....50's south and east. Rain/snow continuing on Friday in OK, chance of rain east TX, partly cloudy elsewhere. Temperatures holding in the 40's OK, mostly 50's and 60's TX.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Variably to mostly cloudy today, high near 80. Mostly cloudy tonight, low in the mid-40's, slight chance of a shower before midnight. Showers likely on Friday, high near 60. Junction/San Angelo: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the low 80's. Mostly cloudy tonight, low near 50. Mostly cloudy on Friday, slight chance of a shower late afternoon, high in the mid-60's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Now that we are nearing the end of the season, pollen release has slowed in some areas with a corresponding decrease in airborne amounts. Mixed but mostly favorable conditions across the Plateau today. Pollen released from the eastern end of the Plateau will move faster and take a different track as it moves with winds ahead of the developing low pressure system. Moderate to Significant release expected from this area. Residents of east-central and northeast Texas may be affected this afternoon and evening. Those persons living in southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas may feel some effects later tonight. Transport of pollen into Missouri on Friday is unlikely due to the expected washout. Pollen released from western sections of the Plateau will trek across central and northern Texas during the next 24-36 hours. Moderate release expected from this region. People living in Abilene may feel ill effects this evening....those living in Wichita Falls and Dallas/Ft. Worth by Friday morning. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by green dot on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

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