University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday - Sunday, January 19 - 21 - TX/OK/AR: Surface low pressure and upper-atmospheric energy moving off to the east. Some clouds and a chance of rain this morning for parts of central and eastern TX, otherwise dry across the region. Sunny to partly cloudy skies most areas and cloudiness in central and eastern TX will be dissipating this afternoon. Cold arctic air moving southward from the central Plains will envelop the region tonight and Saturday. Temperatures may be higher in some locations on Saturday with the increased sunshine, however. A weak system will clip the northeastern corner of the region Saturday night / Sunday morning, which may bring some flurries to northeast OK and northwest AR. Otherwise dry Saturday and Sunday. Highs 30's to 50's today, mostly 40's and 50's Saturday, 40's to 60's Sunday. Lows10's and 20's tonight, 20's and 30's Saturday night.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Variably cloudy with decreasing clouds this afternoon, high in the 40's. Clearing and cold tonight, low near 40. Sunny Saturday, high in the 60's. Junction / San Angelo: Sunny this afternoon, high in the upper 40's. Clear and cold tonight, lows in the low to mid-20's. Sunny, high in the mid-50's on Saturday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Rain occurred yesterday (Thursday) over the Plateau, ranging from larger amounts in the south and east to very light amounts in the north and west. Humidities remain above the tolerance range in the west but are marginally favorable in the east. Temperatures are similar.... not reaching the favorable range in the west, but somewhat favorable in the east. So we have somewhat favorable conditions where rain occurred yesterday (which is unfavorable), and unfavorable conditions where no rain fell yesterday. The upshot.... Little to no release expected, with Low Risk of exposure. Saturday and Sunday forecasts for the Edwards Plateau region will be posted on Saturday. Some release is possible. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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