University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday - Sunday, January 19 - 21 - TX/OK/AR: Surface low pressure and upper-atmospheric energy moving off to the east. Some clouds and a chance of rain this morning for parts of central and eastern TX, otherwise dry across the region. Sunny to partly cloudy skies most areas and cloudiness in central and eastern TX will be dissipating this afternoon. Cold arctic air moving southward from the central Plains will envelop the region tonight and Saturday. Temperatures may be higher in some locations on Saturday with the increased sunshine, however. A weak system will clip the northeastern corner of the region Saturday night / Sunday morning, which may bring some flurries to northeast OK and northwest AR. Otherwise dry Saturday and Sunday. Highs 30's to 50's today, mostly 40's and 50's Saturday, 40's to 60's Sunday. Lows10's and 20's tonight, 20's and 30's Saturday night.

Trajectory weather: Sunny today, high near 50 east to mid-50's west. Becoming cloudy tonight, slight chance of light rain or light snow in southern OK, low in the upper 20's. On Sunday... partly to mostly cloudy OK and north TX with a slight chance of morning light snow. High in the 40's. Becoming mostly sunny for San Angelo trajectory, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions for pollen release. Temperatures and humidities are moving slowly into the favorable ranges during midday. Neither factor will be moving far into its favorable range this afternoon, but some favorability will be present for a few hours. Western sections of the Plateau are a bit warmer than eastern areas. Winds are becoming moderate in the eastern sections of the Plateau, moderate to strong in the western sections. On the whole, conditions are suitable enough to support some release during the afternoon hours, particularly from the western areas. Moderate Risk of exposure for a broad area of central and north-central TX today and tonight, including the Dallas / Ft. Worth metro area. Low to Moderate Risk for south-central OK, including the Oklahoma City metro area. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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