University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, January 22 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure situated over the region today. Sunny skies and light winds with highs in the 50's most areas. Increasing clouds from the west later today and tonight ahead of a weak disturbance. Lows tonight from the 20's north to 40's south.

Trajectory weather: Sunny today, high in the mid to upper 50's. Increasing clouds tonight, low in the 30's. Mostly cloudy Tuesday, slight chance of rain late in the day for the westernmost trajectory, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions over the Edwards Plateau today. Noon temperatures ranging from the upper 40's eastern sections to low 50's west. Humidities in the west have fallen sharply during the late morning and have reached the tolerance zone; moisture values have fallen in the east as well, but slower, and are currently borderline favorable to unfavorable. Winds are calm to light in the east, light to moderate in the west. Overall.... some release is possible today with the majority of any release coming from the western sections of the Plateau. Considering the broad area of central and north-central TX that the trajetories cover today and tonight.... Moderate Risk of exposure for the western sections (western north-TX and toward the south plains) decreasing to a Low Risk of exposure for the eastern sections (south-central TX northward to central north-TX). TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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