University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 24 - TX/OK/AR: A series of disturbances moving through the region will keep the region from drying out much during the next few days. Nighttime clouds and fog in many areas. Chance of drizzle or light rain in south TX also, as happened this morning, and perhaps other areas. At midday, cloudy skies in southern TX, mostly sunny skies across central TX, variable clouds in the Panhandles, OK, and AR. High pressure moving southward through the central U.S. Plains will be centered over MO by Thursday morning. Today's light winds will be on the increase from the southeast, pumping moisture into the region. Chance of rain along the Rio Grande and west TX by early Thursday, moving east. Other than this mornings drizzle or light rain, dry for the rest of the day.

Trajectory weather: Sunny west, becoming partly cloudy east today. High near 60. Becoming cloudy tonight with a chance of light drizzle south-central TX. Lows in the 30's west TX to mid-40's south-central TX. Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow on Thursday. Highs in the 30's western KS to 40's west TX.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Mostly unfavorable conditions on the Plateau today. Temperatures at midday ranging from the low 50's west to mid to upper 50's east. These are reasonably favorable. Winds are light in nearly all areas. Humidities are quite unfavorable, however. Values have dropped very slowly in the east and remain at 70% or greater, well above the tolerance range. Values in the west have dropped more steadily during the late morning but remain above 60%. Additional warming this afternoon will only be enough to drop them to borderline values at best. Plus, the western sections show the coolest temperatures. Light rain / drizzle occurred last night and/or this morning near San Antonio, Austin, and some other areas. Overall... little release is expected today, with Low Risk of exposure. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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