University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, January 29 - TX/OK/AR: Rain yesterday region-wide, much of it heavy. Frontal system continues to move eastward today with windy and clearing weather in its wake. Precipitation today for AR. Rain ending other eastern sections of the region. Continued cloudy across the north today; sunny much of central TX already and clearing eastern sections. Clear to partly cloudy region-wide on Tuesday. Highs today from the 30's panhandle to 60's southern TX. Lows tonight in the 20's to 40's. Highs Tuesday in the 40's to 70's.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny, high in the low 60's. Partly cloudy tonight. Lows in the 30's. Tuesday... partly cloudy AR, high in the 50's. Becoming mostly cloudy western TN and western KY (Austin trajectory) with a chance of rain late. High in the 40's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions on the Plateau today. On many other days like today.... temps in the 50's to low 60's, favorable afternoon humidities, moderate to strong winds (especially western sections of the Plateau).... significant release would be expected. However, rain fell over the entire Plateau from yesterday through early this morning. 1/2" amounts were common with heavier doses in many areas. Generally we consider there will be little release if there was rain within the past 24 hours. HOWEVER.... strong winds behind the frontal system should allow for fairly rapid drying in many areas today. So, despite the recent rainfall, pollen release may be possible on today and Tuesday.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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