University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 31 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure building in from the west. Decreasing clouds across the north; sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Clear tonight. Cloudy on Thursday in southeast and far southern TX with a chance of rain in far southern TX. Highs today mostly 40's to 60's, lows tonight mostly 20's to 40's.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy today, high in the mid-50's west to low 60's east. Fair to partly cloudy tonight, low in the mid-20's west TX to mid-30's south-central TX. Partly cloudy Thursday, high near 50 west TX to low 60's northern Mexico.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mixed Threat *** Fairly wide range of conditions across the Plateau. Temperatures, humidities, and winds all lean towards greater favorability in the east, less favorability in the west. For example, conditions near Austin are mostly favorable with high temps near 60, humidities near favorable at noon local time, and moderate winds with higher gusts. On the other hand, conditions near San Angelo are only somewhat favorable today. High temps will be in the low to mid-50's (only mid-40's at noon). Humidities fell from 70% to 60% from 10am to noon and values may approach borderline favorability for only an hour or two this afternoon. Winds are light to moderate. Overall ..... some release is likely today.... with lighter amounts from the western sections and more substantial amounts from the southeast and eastern sections.Moderate to HIGH Risk of exposure today and tonight for residents of south-central TX... the Rio Grande plains... and other portions of southwest TX south of Interstate 10, westward to the Stockton Plateau. This includes the metro areas of Austin and San Antonio. Moderate Risk of exposure for residents in the western Edwards Plateau and other areas of west TX north of Interstate 10... east of U.S. highway 285... and south of Lubbock. Residents of far west TX should be at Low Risk of exposure. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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