|
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
|
Oklahoma City |
Low / Moderate |
|
Tulsa |
Low / Moderate |
|
St. Louis |
Low |
Date Issued: 2 February 2001
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Friday-Sunday, February 2-4 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure governing the weather during the next few days. Mostly cloudy today with a chance of rain in far south and southeast TX; clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Dry weather region-wide Saturday and Sunday with a warming trend. Highs in the 40's and 50's today, 50's and 60's Saturday, 50's to 70's Sunday. Lows tonight from the 20's to 40's, mostly 30's and 40's Saturday night.
Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny today, high in the upper 40's. Fair tonight, low in the low 20's. Variably cloudy with a slight chance of rain early on Saturday, high in the upper 30's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Conditions are mostly unfavorable for pollen release today in Oklahoma. Forecast highs in the upper 40's near the source appear on target (upper 30's at noon). Humidities are dropping slowly from high morning values; they may be somewhat favorable for a few hours this afternoon. Winds are light at midday, becoming light to moderate later this afternoon. A little release is possible but amoutns should be light. Low Risk of exposure for east-central and northeast OK... and for others along the forecast trajectory However, some exposure is also possible from the Texas populations of mountain cedar. More release may be possible on Saturday with warmer temperatures and moderate winds. Preliminary trajectories move to the east, across eastern OK and central AR. TK
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, Oklahoma
Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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